5 Must Read Finance Books Em 2010, os livros de finanças best-seller representaram uma amostragem de padrões antigos misturados com clássicos modernos. Eu selecionei alguns dos meus favoritos que eu acho que você também terá livros escritos e valiosos para melhorar sua vida financeira. (Nós lhe damos uma lista de leituras informativas e divertidas que você deseja compartilhar com outras pessoas nesta temporada. Verifique 10 Livros para as férias.) 1. A Makeover do dinheiro total (2007) por Dave Ramsay Especialista em finanças pessoais conhecido Dave Ramsay Novamente alcançou o status de best-seller com seu último livro sobre como melhorar sua vida financeira. Os livros de Ramsays se concentram principalmente nos estágios iniciais da obtenção de suas finanças em ordem. De acordo com Publishers Weekly, o fundamento de seu sistema é simples: trabalhe duro, pague o que você deve e fique fora da dívida. Em particular, Ramsay conhece sua estratégia de bola de neve para sair da dívida. A estratégia envolve o foco em pagar pequenas dívidas primeiro, enquanto paga apenas o mínimo para todas as outras dívidas. Então, uma vez que uma dívida é paga, um leva o valor economizado de não pagar juros sobre essa dívida e se concentra em pagar a próxima menor dívida. Matematicamente, esta não é a maneira mais efetiva de amortizar a dívida (que se concentraria em dívidas com a taxa de juros mais alta), mas, como Ramsay ressalta, é uma abordagem mais motivadora. Afinal, se as pessoas fossem perfeitamente racionais, eles não teriam tanta dívida em primeiro lugar. 2. Rich Dad, Poor Dad (2009) por Robert Kiyosaki Rich Dad, Poor Dad certamente classifica como um dos clássicos de todos os tempos em livros de finanças pessoais. Em vez de se concentrar em etapas concretas para o que as pessoas podem fazer para consertar sua vida financeira, o livro apresenta uma mentalidade alternativa sobre o dinheiro. De acordo com Kiyosaki, os ricos ensinam seus filhos a uma visão fundamentalmente diferente do mundo financeiro. Por exemplo, o livro aponta que trabalhar duro e até ganhar uma renda alta não é suficiente para garantir o sucesso financeiro. Em vez disso, o livro enfatiza que o rico trabalha inteligente e gasta mais inteligentemente. Na verdade, uma pessoa com uma renda de 100.000 e 110.000 em despesas acabará o ano mais pobre, enquanto uma pessoa com uma renda de 30.000 e 20.000 em despesas termina o ano mais rico. Pai rico, pai pobre é uma leitura obrigatória para aqueles que procuram mudar sua atitude sobre dinheiro e riqueza. Você pode ler todos os livros práticos com um bom conselho financeiro, mas se você não tem a mentalidade de criar verdadeiramente a riqueza, será difícil alcançar o sucesso financeiro. (Nós fornecemos alguns títulos clássicos e menos conhecidos para adicionar à sua coleção). Veja Investir Livros que paga. 3. O Investidor Inteligente (1949) por Benjamin Graham O Investidor Inteligente é o avô dos livros de estratégia de investimento. O autor Benjamin Graham é muitas vezes considerado um dos pais da escola de investimento de valor. O livro enfatiza a importância da análise fundamental e compreendo verdadeiramente seus investimentos. Ao aprender a analisar os investimentos potenciais em profundidade, os investidores podem aprender a detectar ações de baixo preço respaldadas por empresas robustas. O princípio central do livro é que uma abordagem científica deve ser usada ao direcionar seus investimentos. Ao ler este livro, você aprenderá a manter suas emoções fora de seus investimentos e desenvolver uma posição cética em relação a qualquer coisa que pareça com o tipo de hype de Wall Street que muitas vezes leva o investidor médio a problemas. 4. Real Money (2005) por Jim Cramer O analista financeiro popular Jim Cramers, o livro Real Money continuou a vender bem desde a sua estréia em 2005. O livro fornece um olhar interessante na mente dos Cramers. A coisa mais impressionante que você encontrará sobre Jim Cramer é que ele é muito mais inteligente e deliberativo do que a caricatura over-the-top que ele apresenta na televisão. O livro fornece uma análise básica play-by-play das técnicas básicas que a Cramer defende para a compra de ações. Este não é o livro para aqueles que querem investimentos de set-it-and-forget-it. Os defensores de Cramer não compram e aguardam, mas preferem comprar e fazer a casa refletindo seu desejo de que você gaste pelo menos uma hora por semana, analisando cada posição que você ocupa. Embora esta lição de casa possa rapidamente se tornar um grande compromisso, Cramer recomenda que você segure em algum lugar no estádio de dez posições para que você continue diversificado. Este pode não ser o livro certo para cada investidor, mas se você estiver interessado nos tipos de coisas que um gerente de fundos de hedge pensa sobre o dia todo, você vai aproveitar este livro. 5. The Richest Man in Babylon (2004) por George Clayson Outro oldie-but-goodie está entre os melhores livros para ler este ano. O homem mais rico da Babilônia é um pouco do mesmo gênero que Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Você não terá necessariamente muitos itens acionáveis deste livro, em vez disso, o livro é uma coleção de parábolas sobre o dinheiro. Estes são os tipos de contos de fadas que se poderia imaginar que Warren Buffet diria aos pequenos filhos sobre a sua estrada para a riqueza. Dicas perenes como salvar 10 de sua renda são apresentadas como salvar um pedaço de ouro por cada dez que vem em sua bolsa. O conselho neste livro é simples e fácil de entender. O livro pode ser excessivamente simplista para o gosto daqueles que já conhecem bem os princípios das finanças pessoais. Para a maioria dos leitores, no entanto, as parábolas fornecem uma nova perspectiva sobre as decisões financeiras e ajudarão a incutir bons hábitos financeiros como um senso comum. (Embora seja importante investir mais cedo, também é importante investir com sabedoria. Leia os 5 melhores livros para jovens investidores.) A linha inferior Se você encontrar um livro nesta lista que você não lê, eu recomendo que você o pegue no próximo Quando você estiver na loja de livros, ou melhor ainda, confira a biblioteca. Sua carteira irá agradecer-lhe. Análise do preço de volume. Negociação usando análise de preço de volume Oi 8211 meu nome é Anna Coulling e, assim como você, gosto de negociar. Eu principalmente me concentro nos mercados de divisas e commodities. Eu tenho negociado e investido por mais de 16 anos, então você estará aprendendo com alguém que negocia tempo integral. Eu sou um colaborador especialista da FXstreet e trabalhei com o CME apresentando webinars sobre comércio de petróleo bruto e outras commodities. Você também encontrará meus comentários e análises de mercado em muitos principais portais comerciais, incluindo Investimento. Agora você pode seguir todas as minhas mais recentes previsões de mercado e análise de futuros de ouro e ouro ao longo de todas as negociações. Toda a minha negociação é baseada na análise do preço do volume, seja em ações, commodities, ações ou divisas. Eu tenho usado essa abordagem por muitos anos e acredito que é o único que funciona e funciona de forma consistente. Se você gostaria de seguir minha negociação mais de perto, por que não se juntar a mim em uma das minhas salas de treinamento GRÁTIS GRÁTIS - basta clicar no link para se juntar ao 8211. Estou ansioso para vê-lo lá. 8211 considera Anna agora um Não 1 Melhor Vendedor: Internacional Estrangeiro O Exchange Volume foi a pedra angular em que minha própria carreira comercial foi construída. Foi onde eu comecei, e me considero afortunado de ter feito isso. Por que o volume e o preço são os ÚNICOS indicadores líderes da futura atividade do mercado. Muitos comerciantes nunca descobrem o seu poder incrível até que ele seja tarde demais, dependendo de indicadores de atraso, o que define o mercado. Agora, finalmente, está aqui. No livro, você descobrirá a abordagem única que é VPA, ou Análise de preço por volume. O preço no próprio número 8217 é apenas 8211 um preço. O volume no próprio it8217s é apenas esse volume 8211. Mas combiná-los e, assim como adicionar salitre, carvão e enxofre, eles se tornam uma mistura explosiva. Suas tabelas literalmente EXPLODARão na vida. De repente, você terá a visão para ler o próximo movimento do mercado, antes que isso aconteça. Agora, com o VPA, sua negociação se tornará livre de estresse e agradável. Por que suas decisões comerciais serão baseadas na lógica e no senso comum. Os iniciados simplesmente NÃO PODEM esconder a atividade do mercado da vista. Tudo o que você precisa fazer é interpretar a relação de preço de volume 8211, em seguida, simplesmente segui-los. E SIM 8211, mesmo no mercado forex local Aqui estão alguns dos maravilhosos comentários que recebi em e-mails de clientes que compraram o livro 8211 muito obrigado 8211 Anna Desejo agradecer-lhe muito por fornecer comerciantes de varejo com uma escrita maravilhosa , Divertido de ler e livro muito inteligente. Acabei de terminar seu Guia Completo de Análise de Preços por Volume e achei muito agradável e muito, muito informativo. Eu tinha sido apresentado a alguns desses conceitos antes (análise de volume de difusão), mas tenho que dizer que seu estilo e abordagem é muito mais fácil de compreender, e muito mais fácil de implementar. Prezado Corlla, eu encontrei o seu livro na Amazon, por acaso, depois de ter digitado na negociação usando Análise de preço por volume. Tenho o livro esta semana, e já estou a meio caminho. A sua exposição do comportamento do volume no mercado e a forma como diferentes barras de preços se relacionam com o volume é fantástica. É realmente um abridor de olhos. Fiquei interessado na abordagem Wyckoff por um tempo, mas não encontrei algo tão claro como seu livro. Obrigado por escrever um livro tão genial. E agora para outro 82308230 Se você é novo no mundo do comércio forex, o seguinte livro pode ser para você. Lembro-me do que era quando eu comecei e pode ser um mercado confuso e complexo para interpretar. No livro, explico as forças que conduzem os mercados e as amplas abordagens para analisar o comportamento do mercado. Espero que forneça o conhecimento de fundo para ajudá-lo a se tornar um comerciante melhor, à medida que você entra no mundo do comércio forex. O êxito para muitos comerciantes continua a ser um sonho evasivo e, embora o próprio processo comercial seja relativamente simples e direto, os mercados em si certamente não são. Na verdade, dos quatro principais mercados, o forex é o mais complexo de todos, e ainda é promovido como um que poderia ser o seu próprio ATM's pessoal. Nada poderia estar mais longe da verdade, e é por isso que muitos comerciantes aspirantes finalmente falham e desistem ou seguem em frente. Isso é uma grande vergonha, pois não é culpa dele, e é simplesmente porque ninguém nunca explicou como os mercados, e em particular, os mercados de divisas, realmente funcionam. Se isso soa familiar, então este livro é para você. O mercado forex está longe de ser simples, e as ferramentas e técnicas que você precisa para sobreviver e prosperar são variadas. Muitos comerciantes em ascensão abordam o mundo das divisas de uma forma unidimensional, quer na adoção de uma única técnica analítica, quer assumindo que esse mercado funciona isoladamente para todos os outros. Ambos são igualmente perigosos. O mercado forex situa-se no coração do mundo financeiro. Afinal, cada decisão de cada especulador, comerciante ou investidor é sobre uma coisa, e uma coisa apenas dinheiro. O mercado FX engloba todos os aspectos do risco e retorno em termos financeiros, o que é então superado com a manipulação política e do banco central, parte integrante deste mundo. Para ter sucesso como comerciante de forex, você precisa se equipar com as ferramentas, o conhecimento e as técnicas para assumir as imensas forças variaram em sua direção. Aproxime-se do mercado forex com um atirador de ervilhas e você simplesmente se tornará outro acidente. Arme-se com este livro, e você entrará no mundo do comércio forex, totalmente mobilizado com as armas apropriadas, das quais o conhecimento e a visão são os mais poderosos. E don8217t esquecer-se como o falecido grande Jesse Livermore disse uma vez: 8220Se o mercado é projetado para enganar a maioria das pessoas, na maioria das vezes 8220 Agora disponível no Amazon Kindle e no livro de bolso Forex For Beginners é um guia passo a passo para ajudar Você começou no excitante mundo do comércio forex. O livro leva você pela mão, a partir de explicações de como e por que temos um mercado forex, como funciona e a mecânica de colocar negócios. As várias abordagens analíticas são explicadas em detalhes, além de compreender a importância do volume e do preço. A partir daí, o livro prossegue para explicar os conceitos de margem e alavancagem, planos de negociação, quantificação de gerenciamento de risco de dinheiro e dimensionamento de posição. Então, está colocando tudo junto, enquanto caminhamos através de negócios completos juntos, do início ao fim, com vários exemplos trabalhados. Finalmente, o livro explica elementos-chave da plataforma MT4 e como colocar e gerenciar negócios. Ao longo do livro, existem centenas de imagens e imagens, com explicações simples, para ajudar a explicar tudo de forma clara, para que você aprenda rápido e não tenha deixado de ter nada. Se você quer o livro completo, do iniciante à colocação do seu primeiro comércio, e tudo no meio, então este é o livro para você. O livro será publicado nas próximas semanas, a um preço promocional muito especial, então pegue sua cópia VELOZES. Como sempre, agradeço a todos vocês por seus amáveis comentários e comentários sobre meus outros livros. Eu não posso dizer o quão tocado eu estive, e espero que você aproveite este livro, tanto quanto os outros dois. Assim que estiver disponível, vou adicionar o link aqui. Todos os melhores votos muito obrigado 8211 Anna 2 pensamentos sobre ldquo Trading usando análise de preço de volume rdquoPrice Action Trading Course Se você deseja saber mais sobre Price Action Trading. Então este curso de negociação de ação de preço forex realmente irá ajudá-lo. Há muitas dicas comerciais práticas e exemplos sobre como negociar com a ação de preços neste curso e, no final, você realmente terá uma sólida compreensão e, espero, se tornará um comerciante de ação de preço melhor. Devo adverti-lo, porém, de que esse curso de ação de preço é bastante longo e você precisa de uma xícara de café, mas não é aborrecido. Essa é a minha garantia Se você acha que é aborrecido e me avise e contratarei um comediante para editá-lo :-). Para lhe dar uma ideia dos tópicos abordados neste curso de negociação de preços, basta percorrer a tabela de conteúdos mostrada acima. Se você vir algum tópico ou capítulo sobre esta tabela de conteúdos abaixo que lhe interessa, tudo o que você precisa fazer é clicar nesse link e você será levado ao capítulotopic imediatamente sem ter que rolar ou ler tudo sobre este curso. Depois de passar pelo curso de negociação de ação de preço, você precisará disso: Tabela de Conteúdos Mantenha seus 500 para sua Missus Gastar 8216 Cuz8217 Este curso de negociação de ação de preço é GRÁTIS Sério, senhoras e senhores, meus amigos comerciantes e fiel para as estratégias de estratégia para os fãs. Existem sites de forex que vendem cursos de negociação de ações de preços e adivinhe o que você pode estar fora do bolso em 100-500 ou mais. Basta fazer uma rápida pesquisa do Google para cursos de negociação de ações de preços, aqui o que você verá (eu acabei de pegar o primeiro 3 que eu vi): 1: Nial Fuller8217s Price Action Trading Course on learntotraderthemarket vende por 249 no momento. 3: E aqui o curso de negociação de ação do preço de Al Brooks em Brookstradingcourse vendendo para 249: Então você tem duas opções: você pode comprar esses cursos de negociação de ações de preço forex (there8217s nada de errado em comprá-los, se isso é o que você quer, vá em frente, eles são Um bom recurso comercial para você obter se você tiver o dinheiro). Ou se você é inteligente (eu tenho que lembrá-lo disso) você pode ler este curso de negociação de ação de preço que eu cheguei aqui de graça e meu único pedido como meio de apreciação é que você gosta, compartilhe, tweet e até mesmo mencione isso Curso de ação de preço se você tiver uma chance de fazê-lo. Isso é tudo que eu pergunto. A questão precisa ser feita: o meu curso de negociação de ações de preço cobre tudo o que você precisa saber sobre a negociação de ações de preço. Para que eu responda sua pergunta, eu terei que lhe fazer uma pergunta antes que eu possa responder sua pergunta. 8230 Do Você precisa saber tudo sobre como funciona um carro a partir de como funciona o motor, o que faz as rodas girarem, como ela muda de engrenagem, como funcionam os freios etc. etc. etc. Antes de dirigi-lo ou você só precisa saber como colocar seu bum no assento do carro e conduzir. Então, este curso de ação de ação de preço é assim, ele apenas diz o que você precisa saber e apenas dê uma olhada na tabela de Conteúdos abaixo para ver o leque de tópicos que este curso de negociação de ações de preço cobre. Como você pode ver, é um curso de negociação de ação de preço bastante abrangente e detalhado que lhe dá tudo o que você precisa saber sobre a negociação de ações de preço. Agora, vamos para o Capítulo 1 do Curso de Negociação de Ação de Preço8230 Curso de Negociação de Ação de Preço CAPÍTULO 1: INTRODUÇÃO À AÇÃO DE PREÇO Para entender realmente a ação de preços, você precisa estudar o que aconteceu no passado. Em seguida, observe o que está acontecendo no presente e depois preveja onde o mercado irá seguir. Independentemente do que você possa pensar, todos os comerciantes são meteorologistas, como o meteorologista. O meteorologista sabe de onde o vento está soprando, vê os sistemas de pressão alta e baixa formando sobre a terra, conhece a variação de temperatura, frente fria, frente quente, sabe o que estou falando, certo, então, o que ele faz, ele dirá algo como amanhã , O tempo em Edinburg será maiormente nublado, pouca possibilidade de chuva e possivelmente ensolarado à tarde. Como ele conhece bem, estudando os dados passados e vislumbrando a atual situação climática no momento (e atualmente, sua previsão é mais confiável devido a modelos avançados de computador e satélites no espaço). Então, os comerciantes são assim. Se nós conseguimos a direção errada, perdemos dinheiro, entendemos corretamente, ganhamos dinheiro. Simples assim. Então, tudo o que você vai ler aqui é sobre tentar obter essa direção antes de colocar um comércio. Antes de começar, estas são algumas das palavras que você pode encontrar: quando o mercado acabar, é dito que é otimista (tendência de alta). Bearishif o mercado está baixo, é dito ser de baixa. O castiçal de Candlesticka baixista que abriu mais alto e fechou a parte inferior é dito para baixo. O castiçal Bulls Candlesticka que abriu mais baixo e fechou mais alto é dito ser um castiçal bullish. Risco. Razão de Recompensa se você arrisca 50 em uma negociação para fazer 150, então seu risco: a recompensa é 1: 3, o que simplesmente significa que você fez 3 vezes mais do que seu risco. Este é um exemplo de risco: razão de recompensa. Agora, o próximo capítulo do curso de negociação de ações de preços, você vai aprender qual é a ação do preço e muito mais. Curso de negociação de ação de preços CAPÍTULO 2: O QUE É AÇÃO DE PREÇOS TRADING Esta é a definição básica de negociação de ações de preço: quando os comerciantes tomam decisões de negociação com base em padrões de preços repetidos que uma vez formados, eles indicam ao comerciante que direção o mercado provavelmente moverá . A negociação de ações de preço usa ferramentas como padrões de gráficos, padrões de candelabros, linhas de tendência, bandas de preços, estrutura de swing de mercado, como upswings e downswings, níveis de suporte e resistência, consolidações, níveis de retracement de Fibonacci, pivots etc. Geralmente, os comerciantes de ação de preços tendem a ignorar a análise fundamental - o fator subjacente que move os mercados. Porque eles acreditam que tudo já está descontado no preço do mercado. Mas há uma coisa que eu acredito que você não deve ignorar: os principais anúncios de notícias econômicas, como as decisões de taxa de juros, folha de pagamento não agrícola, FOMC, etc. (Se você está interessado em trocar notícias de moeda, confira essas estratégias de negociação de notícias: taxas de interesse notícias forex Estratégia de negociação. Estratégia de negociação de Forex da não-fazenda da agência ampliação da estratégia de negociação de notícias forex de 1 minuto) Da minha própria experiência e do que vi, eu digo que o lançamento de notícias econômicas pode ser tanto um amigo quanto um inimigo para seus negócios. É o que eu quero dizer com isso: se você fez uma negociação em linha com o resultado do lançamento de notícias econômicas, você deve ganhar muito mais dinheiro muito rapidamente em um curto período de tempo, porque o lançamento da notícia muitas vezes tende a mover o preço muito rapidamente Ou para cima ou para baixo devido ao aumento da volatilidade. Mas se o seu comércio foi contra a notícia, você pode se afastar com todos os seus lucros eliminados ou uma perda e a perda pode ser enorme porque os mercados podem se mover tão rápido durante esse período que há também a chance de que sua parada não possa ser desencadeada. O gráfico abaixo mostra e mostra o que pode acontecer quando existe um importante lançamento de notícias fundamentais: Esta é uma experiência que nunca esquecerei. Eu negociei uma configuração de ação de preço perfeita, o comércio foi como eu esperava, mas alguns minutos depois, o mercado caiu muito rápido. A minha perda de paragem nunca foi desencadeada no nível de preços em que estabeleci inicialmente. Eu tentei fechar esse comércio tantas vezes quanto pude, mas era impossível fechar porque o preço estava bem abaixo, onde meu preço de perda de parada foi Price saltou minha perda de parada. Só fiquei lá e assisti desesperadamente. Depois do que parecia uma eternidade, o comércio foi fechado pelo corretor no pior preço possível, caminho abaixo. Esse comércio único quase apagou minha conta de negociação. Em vez de perder 2 da minha conta comercial, perdi quase metade disso. Eu não entendi e não sabia o que aconteceu naquela noite para fazer o mercado se mover assim. Não consegui dormir naquela noite. Mais tarde, descobri que era um importante lançamento de notícias econômicas que movia o mercado desse tipo. A partir desse incidente, eu aprendi minha lição, então, antes de colocar uma troca, eu vou ao calendário da fábrica de forex para verificar se há notícias de alto impacto que eu saio antes de colocar meus negócios. Se houver uma configuração comercial válida, mas se eu vejo que o tempo está próximo de uma notícia importante a ser anunciada, eu não entrarei. Há exceções em que vou negociar se eu vejo que posso colocar minha parada por trás de um importante suporte ou nível de resistência. As notícias de alto impacto são codificadas por cores em vermelho. Isso é o que você procura (veja a figura abaixo): Heres o que você pode fazer: se um processo de troca válido acontecer, verifique com a forexfactory para garantir que não haja grandes anúncios de notícias que serão feitas em breve, que possam afetar o seu comércio. Se houver notícias para serem divulgadas, você pode fazer essas duas coisas: não troque até depois do comunicado de imprensa e espere até que os mercados comecem a negociar normalmente novamente, ou se você decidir trocar, trocar pequenos contratos porque o mercado é muito volátil quando a notícia é lançada . Isso pode funcionar para você ou contra você. Você precisa saber o que está fazendo durante esses horários. Se você já tem um comércio que já foi executado (antes do tempo de liberação de notícias) por algum tempo e lucro, pense em mudar a parada de perda mais apertado ou tirar alguns lucros dessa tabela, caso o mercado vá contra você uma vez que a notícia seja lançada . Em um caso ideal, você teria levado esse comércio há um tempo e que o preço atual do mercado está longe do seu preço de entrada comercial e você já teria trancado alguns lucros e se o mercado se mover na direção do seu negócio após a notícia Liberação, você ganhará muito dinheiro. 3 Razões importantes pelas quais você deve negociar Ação de preços A ação de preço representa o comportamento humano coletivo. O comportamento humano no mercado cria alguns padrões específicos nos gráficos. Portanto, a negociação de ações de preço é realmente sobre a compreensão da psicologia do mercado usando esses padrões. É por isso que você vê o preço atingir os níveis de suporte e saltar de volta. É por isso que você vê o preço atinge os níveis de resistência e as cabeças para baixo. Por causa da reação humana coletiva, a ação do preço dá estrutura ao mercado forex. Você não pode prever com 100 precisões, onde o mercado será o próximo. No entanto, com a ação de preço, você pode, até certo ponto, prever onde o mercado pode potencialmente ir. Isso ocorre porque a ação de preço traz estrutura. Então, se você conhece a estrutura. Você pode reduzir a incerteza até certo ponto e prever com algum grau de certeza onde o mercado irá seguir. A ação de preço ajuda a reduzir o ruído do mercado e os sinais falsos. Se você está negociando com indicadores estocásticos ou CCI, etc., eles tendem a dar muitos sinais falsos. Este é também o caso de muitos outros indicadores. A ação de preço ajuda a reduzir esses tipos de sinais falsos. A ação de preço não é imune a sinais falsos, mas é uma opção muito melhor do que usar outros indicadores que são essencialmente derivados dos dados de preço bruto de qualquer maneira. A ação de preço também ajuda a reduzir o ruído. O que é o ruído O ruído do mercado é simplesmente todos os dados de preços que distorcem a imagem da tendência subjacente, principalmente devido a pequenas correções de preços, bem como a volatilidade. Uma das melhores maneiras de minimizar o ruído do mercado é trocar de prazos maiores em vez de negociar em prazos menores. Veja os 2 gráficos abaixo para ver o que quero dizer: E agora, compare o ruído do mercado no gráfico de 4 horas (observe a caixa branca no gráfico que equivale à área do gráfico de 5min acima): tempos menores tendem a ter muito barulho e Muitos comerciantes ficam perdidos em quadros de tempo menores porque não entendem que a grande tendência no prazo maior é aquele que realmente leva o que acontece nos prazos menores. Mas, tendo dito isso, eu troco em prazos menores usando configurações de negociação que ocorrem em prazos maiores. Eu faço isso para entrar em um ponto de preço melhor e manter minha parada de perda apertada. Isso é chamado de negociação multi-timeframe e eu também incluirei isso no Capítulo 16 para mostrar exatamente como está feito. Ação de preço aplicável a qualquer outro mercado A resposta é sim. Todos os itens de troca de preços descritos aqui são aplicáveis a todos os mercados. Aqui, estarei falando principalmente em termos de ação de preço no mercado de moeda, mas, como eu mencionei, os conceitos são universais e podem ser aplicados a qualquer mercado financeiro. Preço Ação de negociação permite que você negocie com uma vantagem de preço de borda A negociação é sobre negociar com uma vantagem. O que é uma vantagem comercial Bem, coloque simplesmente significa que você precisa trocar quando as chances estão a seu favor. Coisas como: Negociação com a tendência Negociação com ação de preço Usando padrões de gráficos confiáveis e padrões de castiçal. Negociação usando níveis de suporte e resistência. Tornando seus vencedores maiores do que seus negócios perdidos. Negociando apenas em prazos maiores. Esperando pacientemente as configurações comerciais corretas e não perseguindo negócios. Todos esses tipos de coisas acima ajudam você a negociar com uma vantagem. Eles podem não estar saindo e provavelmente você já ouviu falar sobre isso antes, mas heythis é o que separa os vencedores dos perdedores. O que a ação do preço não é comercial. A negociação de ações de preço não o tornará rico, mas a negociação de ações de preço com gerenciamento de risco adequado pode torná-lo um comerciante lucrativo. Alguns de vocês passarão por esse guia e aprenderão e ganharão muito dinheiro, mas alguns de vocês irão falhar. É assim que é a vida. A negociação de ações de preço não é o Santo Graal, mas com certeza ele bate usando outros indicadores (a maioria dos quais muitas vezes retardam e derivam da ação de preços de qualquer maneira). A negociação de ações de preço não o tornará um sucesso noturno. Você precisa colocar os estaleiros duros, observar e ver como o preço reage e ver esses padrões repetitivos e depois ter a confiança para negociá-los, então você será recompensado por isso. Se você é um daqueles que vão aprender deste curso e aplicá-lo para o seu comércio forex, meus chapéus para você e eu digo ir e ter sucesso. Tempo do gráfico - Por que é importante Você precisa do tempo do gráfico para entender a ação do preço. Para alguns de vocês, pode levar algum tempo para você entender, enquanto alguns de vocês podem ser muito rápidos em aprender. Observe a ação de preços do mercado. Volte para o passado e veja como o mercado se comportou. O que causou que ele se comportasse dessa maneira Você não pode ser um comerciante de ação de preço confiante até você fazer isso. Se você pudesse simplesmente ler os gráficos o suficiente para poder entrar nos momentos exatos em que o movimento decolar e não voltar, então você teria uma grande vantagem. Linhas de tendência, padrões de castiçal específicos, padrões de gráficos específicos, níveis de retração de Fibonacci e suporte a níveis de resistência. Estas são as ferramentas que uso para trocar. Se você colocar tempo e esforço para aprendê-los, não demorará muito para que você comece a entender e veja como todas essas coisas se encaixam. Comece a aprender a negociar ação de preço nua. Curso de negociação de ação de preços CAPÍTULO 3: ENTENDENDO A PSICOLOGIA MASSA NA NEGOCIAÇÃO Heres uma coisa sobre ação de preço: representa um comportamento humano coletivo ou psicologia de massa. Todos os seres humanos evoluíram para responder a determinadas situações de determinadas formas. E você pode ver isso acontecer no mundo comercial também: a forma como a multidão de comerciantes pensa e reage padrões de formas padrões de preços repetitivos que se pode ver e, em seguida, prever com um certo grau de precisão, onde o mercado provavelmente irá uma vez que esse padrão particular é formado. Por exemplo, se você vê um grande nível de resistência, o preço atinge o nível e forma uma estrela cadente um padrão de castiçal de reversão de baixa. Você pode então dizer com um maior grau de confiança que Price vai descer. Porque há tantos comerciantes que observam esse nível de resistência e todos sabem que o preço foi rejeitado desse nível em uma ou duas ocasiões anteriores e que diz que é um nível de resistência e que eles também podem ver aquela formação de castiçal de reversão E adivinhe o que eles estarão esperando. Eles estarão esperando por suas ordens de venda, apenas uma ordem de venda, mas milhares delas, algumas pequenas e algumas grandes encomendas. Mas do outro lado da moeda é aquele comerciante que comprou a um preço baixo e agora que o preço está indo até o nível de resistência, é a maioria dos seus níveis de lucro. Então, uma vez que eles tomam seus lucros em torno de níveis de resistência, isso significa que agora há menos compradores agora e mais vendedores. As dicas de equilíbrio na direção dos vendedores e é assim que o preço é recuado de um nível de resistência. Porque a ação do preço é uma representação da psicologia em massa, os mercados são movidos pelas atividades dos comerciantes. Portanto, a negociação de ações de preço é sobre a compreensão da psicologia do mercado, usando esses padrões e fazendo lucro como resultado. Existem 2 tipos de negociação de ações de preço, a negociação de 100 ações de preço puro e a negociação de ações de preço não tão puro. Deixe-me explicar Pure Price Action Trading A negociação de ação de preço puro simplesmente significa 100 ações de negociação de preço. Nenhum indicador, exceto ação de preço, sozinho. Negociação de ação de preços não tão pura. Isto é, quando a negociação de ações de preço é usada com outros indicadores e esses outros indicadores fazem parte do sistema de negociação de ação de preço. Esses indicadores podem ser indicadores de tendência, como médias móveis ou osciladores, como indicador estocástico e ICC. (Por favor, não vá googling CCI e indicadores estocásticos) Origem do preço Ação Trading Charles Dow é o cara creditado para ser o pai da análise técnica. Ele surgiu com a Teoria DOW. A teoria tenta explicar o comportamento do mercado e se concentra nas tendências do mercado. Uma parte da teoria é que o preço de mercado despende tudo. Portanto, os analistas técnicos usam tabelas de preços e padrões gráficos para estudar mercado e realmente não se preocupam com os aspectos fundamentais do que movem os mercados. Eu abordarei isso um pouco mais tarde quando falo sobre as tendências, como as tendências começam (ou terminam) no Capítulo 5 deste curso de negociação de ação de preço. CAPÍTULO 4: PREÇO E CARTAS Agora, vamos estudar o preço com um pouco mais de detalhes, isso é para os novatos, ignore esta seção, se você acha que sabe O que é preço O preço é o valor dado a um instrumento específico geralmente em termos monetários e seu valor Depende da oferta e da demanda. Se a demanda é mais, os aumentos de preços, à medida que mais comerciantes começam a comprar e levando os preços. As zonas de demanda em seus gráficos de preços estão em torno dos níveis de suporte. Isso é onde os compradores vêm e começam a comprar e a dirigir os preços. Se houver uma oferta excessiva, o preço cai, pois há mais vendedores e menos compradores. As zonas de abastecimento em seus gráficos estão em torno dos níveis de resistência, onde os vendedores entram e diminuem os preços devido ao fato de que há muito poucos compradores. Toda vez que você abre seus gráficos, tudo o que você está vendo são as forças da oferta e da demanda no trabalho Se o mercado está subindo, o que isso diz sobre a demanda e a oferta, então significa que há muita demanda por esse instrumento. Ou e se o marketing estiver indo para baixo, então o que isso lhe diz sobre a demanda e o fornecimento, então, tem uma demanda menor e muita oferta. Mas há algo mais sobre o preço tem um componente de tempo. Então, o preço de algo hoje não será o mesmo amanhã ou em um mês ou em um ano. A oferta e a demanda ao longo do tempo aumentam e diminuem o preço. Mas como você representa o valor do preço ao longo do tempo que, por sua vez, informa sobre as forças de oferta e demanda. Resposta: Você precisa de gráficos de preços: barras de preços, candelabros e gráficos de linhas. Estas são representação gráfica e visual do preço ao longo do tempo. Dizendo assim uma história sobre as forças de oferta e demanda durante um determinado período de tempo, que pode ser de 1 minuto até um mês ou ano. 3 Tipos Principais de Gráficos de Preços O preço durante um período de tempo é representado graficamente de três maneiras principais: com um gráfico de barras, um gráfico de candelabros ou um gráfico de linhas. Agora, vou passar por cada um desses 3 gráficos principais8230 O que é um gráfico de barras O gráfico que você vê abaixo é um gráfico de barras. Essas coisas verdes e vermelhas são chamadas de barras. Os bares verdes são barras de alta, o que simplesmente significa que o preço de fechamento é maior do que o preço de abertura com um certo período de tempo. Essas barras vermelhas são barras de baixa e isso significa que o preço de fechamento é menor do que o preço de abertura desse período de tempo. O gráfico de charles de barras é simplesmente como uma barra ou barra com 2 botões curtos em ambos os lados. O botão à esquerda é o preço de abertura e o botão à direita é o preço de fechamento. Então, há o pavio na extremidade superior e na extremidade inferior. O ponto ou nível mais alto do pavio na extremidade superior é o preço mais alto que foi alcançado durante um determinado período de tempo ou período e o ponto mais baixo do mecha inferior é o preço mais baixo que foi alcançado também durante o mesmo período ou período. O que é um gráfico de castiçal O gráfico abaixo é um exemplo de um gráfico de castiçal. O gráfico de candelabro transmite a mesma informação que no gráfico de barras acima, a única diferença é que um gráfico de castiçal tem um corpo e um gráfico de barras não possui corpo. Um gráfico de castiçal colocá-lo de outra maneira é como colocar um corpo sobre um esqueleto do gráfico de barras. Heres uma comparação do gráfico de barras contra o gráfico de candelabro e observe como eles transmitem a mesma informação: Essa é a única diferença entre o gráfico de barras e o gráfico de barras Candlestick chartis que o gráfico de castiçal tem um corpo e o gráfico de barras não. A cor vermelha é usada com mais freqüência para indicar um castiçal de baixa, o que significa que o preço abriu alto e fechou-se mais baixo. Um castiçal verde representa um candelabro de alta e é exatamente o oposto. O que é um gráfico de linhas Este gráfico de linha abaixo é baseado na mesma informação de preço que o gráfico de barra e candelabro mostrado acima. Como você pode ver, mesmo assim, ele transmite a mesma informação ao longo do tempo, mas não revela tudo. O gráfico de linha é um dos menos favoritos dos gráficos para negociação. Um gráfico de linha é simplesmente desenhado conectando o preço de fechamento, alto ou baixo e é assim que você obtém a linha em um gráfico. Os gráficos de linhas podem ser úteis para olhar a imagem maior e encontrar tendências de longo prazo, mas simplesmente não podem oferecer o tipo de informação contida em um gráfico de candelabros. Fora destes 3, o gráfico de castiçal é o mais popular seguido pelo gráfico de barras. Então, a partir daqui, eu só vou focar apenas no gráfico de candlestick, mas eu posso acabar usando a barra de palavras para se referir ao padrão de castiçal, então apenas esteja ciente disso. Vou falar mais sobre o candelabro (e os gráficos de candlestick), pois este é o pão e a manteiga para os comerciantes de ação de preço. O candelabro O gráfico de candelabro teve suas origens no Japão e também pode ser referido como o gráfico de castiçal japonês. A cor do gráfico do castiçal diz se o preço estava para cima ou para baixo em um período de tempo particular, o que significa que os castiçais são otimistas ou baixos. Agora, a maioria dos comerciantes prefere definir castiçais verdes como castiçais altos e vermelhos como grosseiros. E eu gosto dessa maneira para mim pessoalmente. Algumas plataformas de negociação de corretores possuem opções em que você pode mudar as cores dos castiçais para qualquer cor que desejar. Se você é uma mulher, você pode mudar um candelabro de alta para rosa e castiçal bajista para roxo (eu nunca vi um candelabro rosa e roxo ainda). Este castiçal mostrado abaixo é um exemplo de candelabro bullish. Um castiçal Bullish simplesmente significa que o preço foi aberto mais baixo e fechado mais alto depois de um determinado período de tempo, que pode ser 1 minuto, 5 minutos, 1 hora ou 1 dia, etc. O corpo da vela representa o preço da distância mudou do preço de abertura para o preço de fechamento. Quanto mais tempo o corpo, significa que o preço mudou um grande negócio para cima após a abertura. Quanto mais curto o corpo da vela, significa exatamente o oposto. O alto é o preço mais alto que foi atingido durante esse período de tempo. A baixa é o preço mais baixo que foi alcançado durante esse período de tempo. Todos esses castiçais mostrados abaixo são candelabros de alta, o que significa que seus preços de abertura foram inferiores aos preços de fechamento e, portanto, refletem e a tendência de exibição geral no período em que cada castiçal foi formado: agora, o castiçal mostrado abaixo é um exemplo de um castiçal de baixa. Um castiçal de baixa qualidade simplesmente significa que o castiçal abriu-se a um preço alto e fechou-se mais baixo depois de um certo período de tempo: todos esses castiçais mostrados abaixo são castiçais de baixa qualidade, o que significa que o preço de abertura foi maior do que o preço de fechamento, refletindo assim uma tendência de baixa: compreensão de compra E venda de pressão em castiçais Sabia que há candelabros de alta hipótese que são considerados castiçais de baixa e baixa que são considerados otimistas. Para realmente entender esse conceito, você precisa entender a pressão de compra e venda. Você vê, cada castiçal que se forma diz uma história sobre a batalha entre os touros e os ursos - que dominaram a batalha, que ganhou no final, que está enfraquecendo etc. Tudo isso se reflete em qualquer castiçal que você vê. O comprimento do corpo do castiçal, bem como a sombra (ou mecha), conta uma história sobre a pressão de compra e venda. Por exemplo, olhe os dois gráficos abaixo: olhe para o primeiro castiçal verde no gráfico esquerdo, é um castiçal de alta direita, sim. Mas você pode ver que tem um corpo muito curto e um mecha muito longo (cauda). Ele diz que os vendedores (ursos) eram dominantes. Se esse castiçal se formasse depois de atingir um nível de resistência, ele será considerado um sinal de baixa, mesmo que seja um castiçal de alta. Now, you can apply the same sort of logic to all the other candlesticks above and read the story each one is telling you. If the upper wick is very long, it simple tells you that theres a lot of selling pressure. It means price opened and got pushed higher by the buyers but then at the highest price, sellers got in and drove it back down. If the lower wick is long, it tells you that theres a lot of buying pressure. Sellers drove the price down but buyers got in and drove the price back up. If the lower wick is short, it tells your theres very minimal buying pressure. If the upper wick is short, it tells you that theres very minimal selling pressure. What about the length of the body of candlesticks The longer the body of the candle indicates very strong buying or selling pressure. A short body of a candlestick indicates little price movement and therefore less buying or selling pressure. Sometimes the candles will have no upper or lower shadows but with very long bodies . These are interpreted the same way as standard candlesticks but are an even stronger indication of bullish or negative market sentiment . In the case of bullish candle, prices never decline below the open. In the case of bearish candle, price never trade above the open. See below: Now, so far we have looked at individual candlestickswhat if you combine more than one candlesticks What does it show you Well, one important thing that group of candlestick can show you is how strong or weak a bullish or bearish move is. They can also tell you if the bullish or bearish move is weakening . The word used to describe such a situation is momentum. The chart below shows 3 bearish candlesticks in a downtrend, each with decreasing length and body lengths. And if this happens around support levels, you should sit up and take notice and also watch for bullish reversal candlesticks which will give you the confidence to buy The following chart below shows you an example of decreasing downward momentum as price nears a support levels. What you will see is that the prior candlesticks will tend to be longer and as price nears the support level, the candlesticks starts to get shorter: This next chart below shows 3 bullish candles in an uptrend each with decreasing lengths. In an uptrend, when you see such happening around resistance levels, you should take notice. Also watch for bearish reversal candlestick patterns to form. This will give you the confidence to sell: Here is an example of a bullish momentum decreasing in an uptrend and then price tumbles right after that : Notice (on the chart above) how the bullish candlesticks had increasing lengths and then gradually decreased as the price went up then followed by a big downward fallmove Thats price momentum. Every time you look at your charts, you need to be aware of such. Very important Candlestick Wicks-Why They Are Important The wicks of candlesticks along with the body tell a story. A wick which can be called a shadow or tail of a candlestick is a line situated above and below the body of the candlestick. How are candle wicks (tailsshadows) formed and what do they mean Well, they are formed because of a change in market sentiment. For an upper wick, price is moving up and then market perception is changed by traders and then price is pushed down towards the open by sellers. Thats how the upper shadow is formed. For the lower shadow, price is moving down but the market sentiment changes and price is pushed up towards the close buy the bulls. Thats how a lower wick or shadow is formed. Longer wicks indicate increase change in market sentiment: What is the Significance of Candlestick Wicks Candlestick wicks with long upper shadows commonly occur when an uptrend is losing strength. Long lower shadows occur when the downtrend is losing steam. Ok, that8217t the end of chapter 4 of the price action trading course8230.now lets head to chapter 5 where you will learn about trends. Price Action Trading Course CHAPTER 5: TRENDS When you have price moving across time due to supply and demand, then this creates trends . This section is a discussion about trends, how they form and how many types of trends and what kind of structure trends have. It is important for you to understand the structure of trends so you will not depend on any indicator to tell you if the trend is up or down because understanding what a trend is, the structure of a trend, what signals to look to tell you that a new trend may be starting and previous one ending is one key knowledge you require as a price action trader. And you only need to use price action to tell you if a trend is up, down or sideways. As Ive mentioned above, there are 3 types of trends . In simple terms, a trend is when price is either moving up, down or sideways. So when price is moving up, its called an uptrend. When price is moving down, its called downtrend. When price is moving sideways, its called and sideways Now each of these 3 trend types have certain price structure about them that tells you whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend. These structures are derived from the Dow Theory. But I will explain it in here briefly. The Dow Theory Of Trends Summarized The theory in simple terms says that: when price is in an uptrend, prices will be making increasing higher highs and higher lows until a higher low gets intercepted, then that signals the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. For downtrend, prices will be making increasing lower highs and lower lows until a lower low is intercepted and that signals an end of the downtrend and a beginning of an uptrend. Structure of An Uptrend (Bull) Market With an uptrend market, prices will be making higher highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), see chart below for clarity: Structure of A Downtrend (Bear) Market Prices will be making Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). The chart shown below is a really ideal case, see chart below for clarity: But you know that in reality, the market is not like that, its more like this chart shown below: The chart above shows an initial downtrend and along the way there is a false uptrend which does not last and price moves down and then eventually another uptrend moves is happening because another lower high has been intersected(which signals end of downtrend). This is how you use price action to identify trends. You should know this stuff. Because the market is not perfect when these trends are happening, you should develop the skill to judge when a trend is still intact or when a trend is potentially reversing. And its pretty much price intersecting highs or lows. Structure Of A SidewaysRanging Market For a ranging market, in an ideal scenario, you will see price moving in a range between a support and resistance level like shown below: But what you see in the real world is not ideal as above, its more like this as shown below: CHAPTER 6: REVERSALS amp CONTINUATION A reversal is a term used to describe when a trend reverses direction. For example, the market has been in an uptrend and when price hits a major resistance level, it reversed and formed a downtrend. Thats what reversal means. Now where can reversals happen The following are the major areas where price reversals do happen: Support levels Resistance levels Fibonacci levels Heres an example of price reversing form a support level and went up and then later broke it and went down. Now that broken support level acts as resistance level when price came for a re-test of the level and sent the price tumbling down: Now, what about continuation then Well, in simple terms, continuation means that there is a main trend, for example an uptrend, that is happening and you will notice that price slows down and maybe consolidates for a little while and may fall back down a littleit is like a minor downtrend in a major uptrend move called a downswing in an a major uptrend. So when that ends and price resumes in the original uptrend direction then that is called a continuation. The chart below makes this concept a bit more clearer: So the big question is: how to spot trend continuity and execute trades at the right time The secret is in identification of specific chart patterns as well as very specific candlesticks patterns and you will discover more on the Chart Patterns and Candlestick Patterns section of this course. Top 3 reasons why it is so important for you knowing reversal pointslevels as well as understanding trend continuity patterns and signals: You dont want to be buying near or at a resistance level (which is a reversal point). You dont want to be selling at near or at a support level (which is a reversal point). You dont want be buying when the trend is down and you dont want to be selling when the trend is up thats why you need to know about continuation charts and candlestick patterns which will allow you to trade with the trend. (There are exceptions though when you can trade against the main trend like that like in trading channelssee Chapter 9 of this price action trading course where it talks about: How To Trade Channels) CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING MARKET SWINGS Market Price moves in swings . A price swing is when markets moves like what a wave does. So in an uptrend, price will be making higher highs and higher lows like the figure shown below: So in an uptrend, price moves in swings like this chart shown below: And in a downtrend, price will be making lower highs and lower lows: So in a downtrend, price moves in swings like the chart shown below: 3 Reasons Why Its So Important For You To Understand Market Price Swings If you want to be really good price action trader, you have to understand this concept of how price moves in swings. This is especially true if your style of trading is trend trading or swing trading. Because if you dont understand how price moves in swings, this is what you are going to end up doing: You will execute trades at the very wrong spot For example, in a downtrend, you will sell when the market is just doing an upswing Not good Which means, you will get stopped out or you need to put in a large stop loss. Large stop loss does not necessarily mean large risk if you do position sizing based on the stop loss distance. But if you dont then thats a large risk you are taking. If you have a large stop loss, then youve got to wait a while before the market makes downswing before you to start seeing profits on your trade. Heres an example of what Im talking about: Its really not a good situation to be in. Every traders wish is that the moment a trade is placed, it goes to profit immediately. But we know the market is not like that, sometimes that happens, and sometimes it doesnt. Thats the nature of the market. So in an uptrend, you should be looking to buy on the downswing. In a downtrend, you should be looking to sell on an upswing. And the best way for doing that is by using Price Action (reversal candlesticks) as shown below: Now, these chart below is what actually happens in real life trading environment: CHAPTER 8: HOW TO TRADE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS Nothing is more noticeable on any chart than support and resistance levels. These levels stand out and are so easy for everyone to see Why Because they are so obvious. As a matter of fact, support and resistance trading is the core of price action trading. The key to successful price action trading lies in finding effective support and resistance levels on your charts. Now, in here, I talk about 3 types of support and resistance levels and they are: The normal horizontal support and resistance levels that you are probably most familiar about. Broken support levels become resistance levels and broken resistance levels become support levels. Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels Now, lets look at each in much more detail. Horizontal Support and Resistance Levels These are fairly easy to spot on your charts. They look like peaks and troughs. The chart below is an example and shows you to trade them: How To Find Horizontal Support And Resistance Levels On Your Chart If price has been going down for some time and hits a price level and bounces up from there, thats called a support level. Price goes up, hits a price level or zone where it cannot continue upward any further and then reverses, thats a resistance level. So when price heads back to that support or resistance level, you should expect that it will get rejected from that level again. The use of reversal candlestick trading on support and resistance levels becomes very handy in these cases. Significant Support amp Resistance Levels Not all support and resistance levels are created equal. If you really want to take trades that have high potential for success, you should focus on identifying significant support and resistance levels on your charts. Significant support and resistance levels are those levels that are formed in the large timeframes like the monthly, weekly and daily charts. And when price reacts to these levels, they usually tend to move for a very long time. Heres an example of NZDUSD that hit a resistance level on the monthly timeframe and made a 1,100 pips move down to the next significant support level and price can now be seen bouncing up from that support level: Now, heres the technique I use to trade setups that happen in larger timeframes: I switch to smaller timeframes like the 4hr amp the 1hr, 30min, 15min and even the 5min and wait for a reversal candlestick signal for my trade entries. This is so that I can get in at a much better price level as well as reducing my stop loss distance. Thats whats multi-timeframe trading is all about. Support turned Resistance Level And Resistance Turned Support Level Now, the next on is this thing called Support turned Resistance Level And Resistance Turned Support Level. There are many traders that dont realize that usually, in a downtrend, when a support level has been broken to the downside, it often tends to act as a resistance level. Here is an example shown on the chart below: So when you see such happening, you should be looking for bearish reversal candlestick to go short. As a matter of fact these Rs are the upswings in a downtrend. Similarly, in an uptrend you will also see such happening where Resistance levels get broken and when price heads back down to these, they now will act as support levelsHeres an example: Look for bullish reversal candlestick around these type of resistance turned support levels as your signal to buy. Can you see how the need for using other indicators is diminished once you understand how easy is to spot such trading setups like these CHAPTER 9: HOW TO TRADE PRICE CHANNELS What is a channel And How Do You Trade A Channel This section is about that. The path price follows and the area enclosed within it is called the price channel. The fundamental principle of how a channel form is based on support and resistance. Why price does that, I dont know but consider it as supply and demand at work. There are 3 major types of channels: the uptrend channel , the downtrend channel and the sidewayshorizontal This is what a downtrend channel looks like and how to trade it: This is what an uptrend channel looks like and shows how you can trade it: This is what a sideways channel looks like and how you can trade it: Sideways channels (or horizontal channels) are little bit different from uptrend and downtrend channels because with uptrend and downtrend channels, you would require 2 points to draw trendlines and wait for price to touch them later on before you take a trade because the trend lines are at an angle. But with sidewayshorizontal channels, you can actually start trading the setup at point 2 which can be both a resistance or support level based on the fact that a prior resistance or support level is already visible and you should expect price to bounce from those levels. Look for reversal candlesticks to buy or sell when you see such setups happening. General Rules For Trading Channels If you buy or sell on the other side of the channel, you wait for price to reach the other end of the channel to take profit or exit the trade. Place your stop loss on just outside the channel or just above the high of the candlestick (for a sell order) or just below the low of the candlestick (for a buy order) that touched the channel and shows signs of rejection. This candlestick can also be a reversal candlestick. You may also decide to take half the profits off as price is in the middle of the channel for a profitable trade. CHAPTER 10: NINE (9) PROFITABLE CHART PATTERNS EVERY TRADER NEEDS TO KNOW Theres a difference between chart patterns and candlestick patterns . Chart patterns are not candlestick patterns and candlestick patterns are not chart patterns: Chart patterns are geometric shapes found in the price data that can help a trader understand the price action, as well make predictions about where the price is likely to go. Candlestick patterns on the other hand can involve only one single candlestick or a group of candlestick which have formed one-after-the other in regard to how they form in relation to one another in terms of their body length, opening and closing prices, wicks(or shadows) etc. Not knowing what chart patterns are forming can be a costly mistake . If you are like that, this is your opportunity to get back on track. Why costly mistake Because you are completely unaware of what is forming on the charts and you end up taking a trade that is not in line with what the chart pattern is signalling or telling you These are the 9 chart patterns you will learn about today: Triangle chart patterns-symmetrical, ascending and descending (3 patterns) Head and shoulders and Inverse Head and Shoulders (2 patterns) Double Bottom and Double Top (2 patterns) Tripple Bottom and Tripple Top (2 patterns) But first up, I am going to talk about triangle chart patterns. Symmetrical Triangle There are 3 types of triangle chart patterns and the chart below shows the differences between each very clearly: Now, lets starts with the symmetrical triangle pattern first. Is A Symmetrical Triangle Bullish Or Bearish Chart Pattern The Symmetrical triangle chart pattern is a continuation pattern therefore it can be both a bullish or bearish pattern: What does this mean then Well, if you see this pattern in an uptrend, expect a breakout to the upside. See an example below: If you see a symmetrical triangle pattern form in a downtrend, then expect a breakout of this pattern to the downside like this one shown below: How To Draw A Symmetrical Triangle You will see price moving up and down but this up and down movement is converging to a single point . You need a minimum of 2 peaks and 2 troughs to draw the two trendlines on both sides. It will be only a matter of time before price breaks out of the pattern and either moves up or down. Two Simple Ways To Trade The Symmetrical Triangle 1: Trade the Initial Breakout The best way is to confirm that the breakout actually happens with a candlestick before placing your order. What I do I is for example, say Im watching a symmetrical triangle form in the 4hr charts and I know that soon a breakout will happen. I then switch to the 1hr chart to wait for the breakout to happen. If a 1hr candlestick has broken the triangle and closed belowabove it, thats my trade entry signal. So I will place a pending buy stopsell stop order to catch the breakout from there. Often I want to make sure that the 1hr candlestick closes outside of the triangle before I enter a pending buy stop or sell stop order to capture the move that happens to avoid false breakouts while the candlestick has not closed yet. But heres the problem with trading triangle breakouts, see chart below: I dont like trading breakouts like the one shown above and heres why: The stop loss distance is too large. Id prefer to enter trades with breakout candlesticks that are close to the trend lines that have been broken. I often see that such breakout of extremely long candlesticks are not sustainable and price will often tend to reverse after such candlesticks as can be seen by the chart above notice that after the breakout candlestick, there was one bearish green pin bar and then for the next 4 candlesticks afterward, the price went down . This is what tends to happened with such long breakout candlesticks. So if you entered a buy order using that long breakout candlestick above, you would have to wait a while for your trade to turn profitable. 2: Trade the retest of the trendline that is broken The second way to enter is to wait for a retest of the broken trendline in the triangle pattern then either buy or sell. This may also be handy if you had an extremely long breakout candlestick on the initial breakout, you best option is to wait for a retest of the breakout trendline then if that happens you enter. Stop loss Placement Options On Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Here are 3 ways on how to place stop loss on triangle patterns, which include symmetrical, ascending and descending triangle patterns which you will learn next. The stop loss placement techniques here are applicable to all triangle patterns so take note of that: Ascending Triangle Chart Pattern And ascending triangle pattern looks like this chart shown below: And this is how a real chart looks like: Is Ascending Triangle Pattern Bullish Or Bearish It is considered a bullish continuation pattern in an existing uptrend. So when you see this forming in an uptrend, expect a breakout to the upside. However, it can also be a strong reversal signal (bullish) when you see it form in a downtrend. Stop Loss Placement Options You can use the strategies given in symmetrical triangle. Take Profit Options I prefer to target previous resistance levels as my take profit target. Or as shown on the chart below, you can use the x pips distance as your take profit target. Another way to do it would be say 3 times the x pips or 2 times the x pips distance. That should give you your profit target level(s). Descending Triangle Chart Pattern Important things to note about the descending triangle chart pattern: The descending triangle chart pattern is characterized by a descending resistance levels and a fairly horizontal support levels converging to a point until a breakout happens to the downside as shown below: And this is how a descending triangle looks like on a chart shown below: Is Descending Triangle Pattern Bullish Or Bearish It is a bearish chart pattern that forms in a downtrend as a continuation pattern. However, this pattern can also form as a bearish reversal pattern at the end of an uptrend. Therefore regardless of where it forms, its a bearish chart pattern. How to Trade The Descending Triangle Formation Similar to the other 2 triangle patterns, you can either trade the initial breakout or wait to see if price reverses back to test the broken support level and then sell. Note: with a triangular pattern, I often prefer to wait for a candlestick to breakout and close outside of the pattern before I enter a trade. This helps to reduce false breakout signals. But there will be times when I will just trade the breakout with a pending sell stop order just a few pips under the support level to catch the breakout when it happens but when I do that, I sit and watch the close of the 1hr candlestick to make sure that it does not close above the support line (if that happens, it may mean a false breakout). And then theres the issues of extremely long breakout candlesticks again like this: As mentioned previously: when you have such extremely long breakout candlesticks like that, better to sit and wait to see if price will reverse and get back up to the support level that was broken ( a retest) which will now be acting as a resistance level and then sell when that level is touched. How To Take Profit I prefer to use previous support levels, lows or troughs and use those as my take profit target level. Another method of take profit that is commonly used is to measure the height of the triangle and if the height is say 100 pips then that is your take profit target. The chart below should give you a clear idea of how its done: Note that on the chart, the descending triangle formed the end of an uptrend. Head amp Shoulders Chart Pattern The head and shoulder chart pattern is a bearish chart pattern. This is what a head and shoulder reversal pattern looks like: Important things to note about the head and shoulder pattern: The head and shoulders pattern is a bearish reversal pattern and when found in an uptrend, it signals the end of the uptrend. Heres how this pattern forms: Eventually, the market begins to slow down after going up for some time and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again. Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline. Heres another example: Heres another one: How To Trade The Head amp Shoulder Chart Pattern. The following chart below makes it much clearer. How To Calculate Profit Targets I use previous lows or troughs to set my take profit target. However, you can also use the distance in pips between the neckline and the head as your take profit target level. So if the distance is 100 pips, then if you trade the initial breakout, you set it at 100pips take profit target level like the chart shown below with the two blue lines: Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern You will also see this pattern, though not as popular, its good to keep an eye out for it. The inverse head and shoulder pattern is bullish reversal candlestick pattern and just the opposite of head and shoulders pattern. Heres what it look like on the chart shown below: And this is what it looks like on a real chart: How to Trade the Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern You can buy the initial breakout of the neckline or wait for the re-test, that is wait for price to breakout and then come back down to test the broken neckline and then buy. Use bullish reversal candlesticks for trade entry confirmation if you are waiting to buy on re-test. I often tend to place my profit target on previous highs. One method of calculating profit target is to measure from the head up to the trendline and what the distance in pips is your profit target. See the two blue vertical lines in the chart above. Double Bottom Chart Pattern A double bottom chart pattern is bullish reversal chart pattern and when it forms in an existing downtrend, it signals a possible upward trend. Heres what It look like: This is what a double bottom pattern looks like on a real forex chart: 3 Ways on How To Trade Double Bottoms 1: Trade the breakout of the neckline: Many traders once they see that the double pattern has formed and the neckline is being tested, thats when they get in as soon as a breakout happens. 2: Wait to enter on retest of Broken Neckline Then there are other groups of traders that like to enter when price reverses back down to touch the neckline, which now would act as a support level. Once it hits that neckline level they buy. 3: Buy on bottom 2. In this way, you have the potential to ride the trade all the way up if the neckline is intercepted. You should consider buying on bottom 2 as buying on a support levelas a matter of fact, that it what is is Look for bullish reversal candlestick patterns for trade entry signals. Take Profit Target levels If you buy on bottom 2, you can use the neckline as your take profit level, or any previous highs above that as well. If you buy the breakout of the neckline, use the distance between the bottom and the neckline in pips to calculate your profit target. See chart below for example: Double Top Chart Pattern A double top chart pattern is a bearish reversal chart pattern and when found in an uptrend and once the neckline is broken, that confirms a downtrend. The double tops are very powerful patterns and if you get into a trade at the right time, you stand to make a lot of profits when the breakout happens to the downside . Heres an example of a double top Chart Pattern shown below: How to Trade the Double Top Chart Pattern Theres 3 ways to trade the double top chart pattern: 1: Trade the initial breakout of the neckline. 2: The technique I like most to take a sell trade on Peak 2 when I see a bearish reversal candlestick. And if price moves down and intersects the neckline and continues to do down further, your profits are dramatically increased. 3: You can wait for price to go back up to test the broken neckline (which would now act as resistance level) and when you see a bearish reversal candlestick pattern, go short (sell) as this example below shows: This is how it would look like in a real forex chart: How to Take Profit On The Double Top Chart Pattern Use previous low (support levels) to set take profit targets. Or another option would be to measure the distance between the neckline and the highest peak (the range) and use that difference in pips as take profit target if you are trading the breakout from the neckline. Triple Bottom I do not see triple bottoms forming quite as oftenRegardless of that, you should have an idea of what it looks like: Triple bottoms are bullish reversal chart patterns, which means if found in a downtrend and this pattern starts to form and once the neckline is broken and price head up, this confirms that the trend is up. Heres another example of a triple bottom shown below: How to Trade The Triple Bottoms Many traders wait until the neckline is broken and trade the initial breakout. Others will wait for a retest of the broken neckline to enter a buy order once they see a bullish reversal candlestick I prefer to take trades on the 3rd bottom by watching the price action. If I see a bullish reversal candlestick pattern, I buy. Why do I do that Well, if price goes up and breaks the neckline and goes upward, I would be in a lot more profit than if I bought the breakout of the neckline. Profit taking methods would be similar to double bottom chart pattern mentioned previously The Triple Top Chart Pattern Triple tops are the opposite of triple bottoms and they are bearish chart patterns. They rarely occur but its good to know what they look like. Triple tops when found in an uptrend, it signals the end of the uptrend when the neckline is broken and price heads down. How To Trade The Triple Top Chart Pattern Some conservative traders wait for the neckline to be broken to trade that breakout. Some will most likely wait for retest of neckline and then sell. I prefer to take trades on Peak 3 and if the trade breaks the neckline and goes all the way down, I have a lot more profit to make. The key to taking a good trade on peak 3 is by looking for bearish reversal candlesticks. These are your signals to go short. If you take a trade at peak 3, you profit target can be the neckline. Or if you take a trade on the breakout of the neckline, measure the distance in pips between the neckline and the highest of the 3 peaks and use that distance to calculate your profit target. Or you can use a previous low and use that as your take profit target level as well. CHAPTER 11: TEN (10) PROFITABLE CANDLESTICK PATTERNS EVERY TRADER NEEDS TO KNOW There are lots of candlesticks, but out of all of them only 9 that you really need to know. Why Because there are very popular are really powerful so why waste time with the rest When these candlesticks form at support and resistance levels or Fibonacci levels they are great trade entry signals. 1: The Doji Candlestick Patterns. The doji candlesticks are single (individual) candlestick patterns. There are 4 types of doji candlesticks as shown below: The doji cross can be both considered a bullish or bearish signal depending on where it forms. The gravestone doji is considered a bearish reversal candlestick when formed in an uptrend or in a resistance level. The dragonfly doji is considered a bullish candlestick pattern when formed in a downtrend or in a support level. The long-legged doji shows a period of indecision by bulls and bears and depending on where it forms (uptrendresistance levelbearish signal, downtrendsupport levelbullish signal) it can be considered a bearish or bullish signal. 2: The Engulfing Candlestick Patterns The engulfing patterns are 2 candlestick patterns. For a bullish engulfing pattern, you will see that the first candle is bearish followed by the second candle which is very bullish and this 2 nd candle completely engulfs Bullish Engulfing-when formed in a support level or in a downtrend, this can signal that the downtrend is potentially ending. Bearish Engulfing-when formed in an uptrend or or in a resistance level, this is a signal that the uptrend may be ending. 3: Harami Candlestick Patterns. Bullish Harami - this is a 2 candlestick pattern. The first candlestick is a very bearish candlestick followed by a bullish candle, which is quite short and is completely covered by the shadow of first candle. When you see this in a downtrend or in an area of support, this will be your bullish(buy) signal. Bearish Harami is the exact opposite of bullish harami. When you see this pattern form in a resistance level or in an uptrend, this is a bearish reversal signal and may indicate that the uptrend is ending and you should go short (sell). The easiest way to remember the harami patterns is to think about a pregnant woman and a baby inside her tummy: 4: Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick Pattern The dark cloud is another bearish reversal candlestick pattern formation consisting of 2 candlesticks. The first one is a bullish candlestick showing a strong upward momentum but when the second candle forms, it shows a completely different storyits bearish and it closes at about the middway point of the first candlestick. When you see the dark cloud cover candlestick pattern in an uptrend or in level of resistance, its a bearish reversal signal and you should be thinking to go short (sell). 5: Piercing Line Candlestick Pattern The piercing line is the opposite of dark cloud cover. You may see this in a downtrend or forming at a support level. The first candlestick is very bearish and when the 2 nd candle forms, it tells a completely different story, its bullish. This tells you that the bears are losing steam and that the bulls are gaining strength to potentially move the market price up. The second bullish candlestick should close somewhere up the mind-point of the first candlestick. So when you see the piercing line pattern forming at support levels or in a downtrend market, take note as this is a potential bullish reversal signal so you should be thinking of going long (buying). 6: Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern This is one of the most reliable candlesticks and obviously one of the most popular due to the fact that they are so easy to spot on any chart. The shooting star is single candlestick pattern and when it forms in an uptrend or in a resistance level, then it is considered as a bearish reversal pattern and so you should be looking to sell. Note: the shooting star is sometimes called the bearish hammer, inverse hammer, inverted hammer or bearish pin bar. They all mean the same and refer to the shooting star candlestick pattern. 7: Hammer Candlestick Pattern The hammer candlestick is a single candlestick pattern pattern and its is considered a bullish reversal candlestick pattern and its the opposite of the shooting star candlestick pattern. It has a very long tail and a short upper wick or none at all. When it forms in a downtrend or at support levels, you should take notethis is a very high probability bullish reversal candlestick pattern and you should be looking to go long (buy). 8: Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern Now, what happens if you see in an uptrend a candlestick that looks like a hammer Is it still a bullish signal Well, in that case . this candlestick is a hanging man and its not a bullish signal. Heres how it looks: Now, the hanging man, is exactly like hammer but the only difference is that it must form in an uptrend. When it forms in an uptrend or in resistance levels, it tells you that there is a possibility that the uptrend is ending so you should be looking to go short (sell). See chart below: 9: Railway Track Candlestick Patterns The railway track pattern is a 2-candlestick pattern and theres a bearish and bullish railway track candlestick pattern. A notable feature of railway tracks is that they look like paralled railway tracks and both candlesticks should be of almost the same lengh and body and almost look like mirror image of each other. For a bearish railway track, the first candle is bullish followed by almost exactly the same length and body of the second candlestick which is bullish. This tells you that bulls are losing ground and bears have gained controlled. So when you see the bearish railway track pattern in an uptrend, or in an area of resistance, this is a signal that the downtrend may be starting so you should be looking to sell. Similarly but opposite is the bullish railway track pattern. When you see this in a downtred or in an area of support, take note because the market may be heading up and this is your signal to buy. 10: Spinning Top Spinning tops can be continuation candlestick patterns or reversal candlestick patterns. Spinning tops have small bodies with upper and lower shadows that exceed the length of the body. Spinning tops signal indecision. A spinning top is a single candlestick pattern and it can be both bullish or bearish. Deixe-me explicar. If you see are bearish spinning top in a support area or in a downtrend, this can be considered a bullish reversal signal when the high of tha bearish spinning top is broken to the upside. Similarly, a bullish spinning stop in a resistance level or in an uptrend can be considered a bearish signal as soon as the low is broken to the downside. Example below shows what I mean: Spinning tops are fairly short in length compared to other candlesticks and their body length is a few steps wider than that of doji candlesticks(which actually have none or very tiny bodies). Another notable feature of spinning tops is that the wicks on both sides should be almost the same length. When I see spinning tops form on support or resistance levels, all it tells me the bears and bulls do not really know where to push the market and so when a breakout of the low or high of a spinning top by the next candle that forms usually signals the move in that direction of breakout Heres an example: Blending Candlesticks-A Concept Every Trader Needs To Know This is a technique where not many traders are aware about and I will just give you a simple example so you understand this concept better. To give you a bit of context, if you are a forex trader and you are using the metrader4 trading platform, it got only 9 timeframes where your charts can be viewed in which are the 1m, 5min, 15m, 30min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly amp monthly timeframes as shown on the chart below: You may see a hammer in the 1hr timeframe but remember that that 1hr timeframe has two-30minute candles to make 1 hr, right Yes. So what do you think the candlestick pattern would be in the two-30 minute candlesticks to give you a bullish hammer candlestick pattern in the 1hr timeframe Or if you see a shooting start bearish candlestick in the 1hr timeframe, what do you think would be the candlestick pattern in the two-30minute candlesticks that gave that 1hr candlestick a shooting star Well, your answers are below: Hope you really understand this concept because heres why: In the metatrader4 trading platform, theres not partner timeframe for 1minuteyou need a 2minute chart which does not exist. Similarly, theres no 10min chart which you can use to blend with the existing 5min timeframe. Similarly, there is no 2hr timeframe to go with 4hr timeframe and no 8hr timeframe to go with the existing 4hr timeframe. So lets say you are a trader that loves to trade only hammers and shooting stars and you are waiting buy at a major support line in the 1hr timeframe. Youve been waiting patiently for a bullish hammer candlestick pattern to form to give you the signal to buy. But unfortunately, no hammer forms in the 1hr timeframe and even though you see a bullish engulfing pattern formed, you did not enter a buy trade. You just watched as price shoots up and you wished you could have bought at the bullish engulfing signal that was given but you are only interested in trading hammers. Well, if there was a 2hr time frame in metrader4, you could have switched to it and seen a very bullish hammer and you could have taken the trade but because you did not understand the concept of blending candlesticks you missed a very good trade. Here are few more examples: Notice also that a piercing line pattern when blended forms a hammer. A Dark cloud cover when blended also forms a shooting star. gt CHAPTER 12: HOW TO TRADE FIBONACCI WITH PRICE ACTION Now, I dont know about you but one thing I continue to see is that price action respects Fibonacci levelsnot all the time but when it does, some of the market moves generated can make you money very easily. The trick is to use Fibonacci and combine it with price action by using reversal candlesticks. But first, if youve never heard about Fibonacci retracement tool, then heres a brief introduction What Is The Fibonacci Retracement Tool This tool is a series or sequence of numbers identified by a guy called Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13 th Century. (Hes long dead) No, need to go into pointless details about how those numbers are derived. So what actually is a Fibonacci Retracement In technical analysis Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on your forex chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and 100. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels . The two fib levels I use the most are the 50 and the 61.8. I really do not focus at all on the others. If you are using metetrader4 Trading platform, the Fibonacci tool has an icon as shown on the chart below: Top 3 Reasons Why You Need A Fibonacci Retracement Tool: In a downtrend, after price has been going down for some time, it will move back up (upswingremember). The Fibonacci retracement tool can help you estimate or predict potential price reversal areas or levels. Similarly, in an uptrend, price will make minor downtrend moves (downswings) and the Fibonacci retracement tool will help you predict potential reversals areas or price levels. If used in conjunction with support and resistance levels and combined with price action, they do really form a powerful combination and do give highly profitable trading signals. This describes something known as price confluence . I will talk more on that later. How to Use the Fibonacci Tool On Metatrader4 It is actually a very simple 3 step process: Step1: find a peak (upswing pointresistance level) and a trough (downswing pointsupport level) Step2: Click on the Fibonacci tool icon on your chart. For the next steps, its all click and drag process Step 3a: In a downtrend market, you click first on the previous peak where you want to analyse from and drag down to the trough where price reversed from and release. Step 3b: In an uptrend market, click and drag first on the trough up to the peak and release. Thats how simple it is to draw Fibonacci retracement levels on your charts. On the chart below notice that price formed a peak and then moved down, found support and formed a trough, and price went back up: At around the 50 fib level, it starts to slow sign of losing the upward steam. You can also see the bearish spinning top candlestick which could have been used as a signal to go short (sell). Can you buy or sell just based entirely on the fib numbers like 50 or 61.8 as soon as price reaches these levels without price action Well, I think that there are traders out there that do that and you can do that. But personally, I do not like that approach. Id rather combine Fibonacci with reversal candlesticks, trend lines, support amp resistance levels etc for trade entries. Lets study the past heres an example of how to trade Fibonacci with price action in an uptrend. Notice the spinning top candlestick right at the 50 level which could have been used as a buy signal: Heres another example of how to trade Fibonacci with price action in a downtrend: You can see that this is not complicated, isnt it Very simple trade setups. Your risks are small compared to the profits you potentially can make. CHAPTER 13: HOW TO TRADE TRENDLINES WITH PRICE ACTION When the market is heading down, it forms down swings and up swings as it continually moves lower. Similarly, when the market is in an uptrend, it will form upswings and downswings as it continues to move up. The peaks that are formed by the up swings and the troughs that are formed by the down swings can be used to draw trendlines. And you need a minimum of 2 peaks to draw a downward trendline for a market that is in a downtrend and you need 2 troughs to draw an upward trendline for a market that is in an uptrend. How To Draw Downtrend Trendlines Now, for a market in a downtrend, you can connect the peaks with a line and that forms you downward trendline. What you are waiting for is for price to come back up and touch that trendline and when it does, this could mean that a down swing will start and it may be the best time to enter a short trade. The use of bearish reversal candlesticks as trade confirmation is highly recommended with this trading method. How To Draw Upward Trendlines When the the market is in an uptrend, connect 2 troughs and you have an upward trendline. When price comes to touch it later, you have a potential buy setup. The chart bellows shows a live example of a long trade on AUDNZD pair that I took at the moment whilst I was writing this guide. As you can see, I was anticipating a move up to the 1.1290 level and used that as my take profit target level. Obviously, this trade was taken based on the setup in the daily timeframe which means it may be a week or two before the profit target is hit if the market makes a nice move up or the opposite can happen . price breaks the trendline and I get stopped out or I can walk away with some profits when my trailing stop gets hit. But the next day, price broke that upward trendline and I got stopped out with a loss. But heres the thing with a trade like that my stop loss is tight . with a potential reward of more than 3 times what I risked for this trade. Heres the chart of what happened: I strongly recommend that you use bullish reversal candlesticks as a signal for executing your buylong trades. Im not glamorizing price action trading here. You will have losses like what Ive shown. But think about this if the price had moved the way I analysed, I would have made a lot more profits than what I lost. With Price action trading, you are risking less with the potential to make more and thats the beauty of price action trading. What happens if the trendline gets intersected There are a couple of things you need to be aware when a trendline gets intersected: (1)The first is that it could mean the trend has now changed. (2)The second is that it can be a false break only and price will soon head back in the original direction. Now, theres another thing about trendlines, if one trendline gets broken, you need to be see if you can draw another trendline above (or below) the one thats broken. There can be 2 or more downward trendlines or 2 or more upward trendlines at any one time on any chart in any timeframe. So if price breaks the first trendline, it still has yet to head to the 2 nd and the third etc So if you take a sell trade on the first trendline but price intersects it and you are stopped out with a loss and now price is heading to the 2 nd trendline above, you should also look to sell if you get bearish reversal candlestick signal. Heres an example of a trade in a similar situation that I took on the AUDUSD pair. See chart below: (enlarge if you cannot see clearly). You will notice that I took the first trade on the first downward trendline based on a bearish harami and also a spinning top pattern there but then price intersected that trendline and went up to the 2 nd downward trendline. I saw a shooting star so I took another short trade. Obviously, you can see how the price reacted to the trendline by forming a shooting star. That was enough signal for me to short this pair. You need to be aware of these kinds of trendlines not only on the sell side buy ton the buy side as well. I suggest you check out Trendline Trading System for more information on how to trade it. CHAPTER 14: HOW TO TRADE MOVING AVERAGES WITH PRICE ACTION Remember in the beginning I did briefly mentioned something about Not-So-Pure Price Action Trading Well, now we are at it When you use price action trading with one other indicator or a combination of indicators which are incorporated into your trading system then thats what I call Not-So-Pure Price Action Trading. (Call it whatever you like, if you think Im wrong, I really dont care). Many new traders that find it difficult to define the structure of a trending market, therefore they rely on moving averages for trend detection or identification. The only thing I see useful in moving averages is for dynamic support and resistance levels. I will explain this concept shortly. As a matter of fact moving averages do a terrible job of predicting trends in that they only do that after that trend has already started already and price has moved a great deal already. Heres an example: In the chart on the left, notice that price has crossed the HL(higher low) already, indicating that the downtrend market has started (potentially). But notice that the moving averages have not crossed yet. So price action is telling you that you are now potentially in a downtrend but moving average is saying not yet. So you have two conflicting signals. And by the time moving average confirms what the price action has indicated, price has already made a great deal of move downward already as shown by this chart on the left. So which are you really going to pick Depend on moving average to tell you that a trend has changed or depend on price action I really cant force, its your choice. Using Moving Averages For Dynamic Support And Resistance Levels The concept of dynamic support and resistance can be fully understood with a few charts given below. When the market is in a downtrend, you will notice that price moves up to the moving average lines (upswing) and then bounces back down from them (downswing). (That is if you put moving average lines on your charts). Heres an example: The similar situation happens in an uptrend: prices move down to the moving average lines (downswing) and then bounces up from them (upswing). Heres an example shown on the chart below: Now that you know this concept of dynamic support and resistance using moving averages, the next thing you need to know is that trend trading strategies can be created around them and in a very nice trending market, they are really effective. For those that love moving averages, what you can do is to look reversal candlesticks as price starts to go back to touch the moving average lines and these are used as your confirmation signal to buy or sell. In a downtrend, you should be looking for bearish reversal candlesticks like the shooting star, bearish harami, spinning tops, dark cloud cover, hanging man etc to go short (sell). In an uptrend, you should be looking out for bullish reversal candlestick patterns like pin bars, dojis, piercing line, bullish harami etc Lets study the past againon the chart below is an example of how to trade dynamic support with Price Action: Now, its easy to say here that you could have bought here and sold here etc based on what happened in the past because now you can see how the market has played out in the past But real challenge for many traders is that when a setup is happening, they will most likely second guess it because this is how its going to look: And this is how how it turned out: Heres an example of trading using dynamic resistance levels with price action : CHAPTER 15: HOW TO TRADE CONFLUENCE WITH PRICE ACTION What is confluence . Well, lets find out here in this following example What if you were watching the market and then you saw that price is heading to a resistance level and then you checked your Fibonacci retracement and its almost like a coincidence that the resistance levels is also at 61.8 Fibonacci level as well. And theres even morethe overall trend is also down. So you have 3 things lining up for you, here they are again: the overall trend is down you have a resistance level that price is coming to and you notice that the price is also heading up to the fib level is 61.8 which coincides with the resistance level. What Ive described above is an example of confluence . A confluence is a pointlevel in the market where two or more levels intersect each other (or come together) and they form a flash point or hot point or confluent point. Heres An Example Of How I Trade With Confluence Let me give a real example of a trade that I took as I was writing this. This is the daily chart for AUDUSD. Have a good and close look at it. Heres why I took that trade: I first drew a downward trendline and was waiting to see if price would come up to touch the trendline. And I also noticed that the previous support level that was broken could potentially act as a resistance level causing price to reverse. Therefore now I have two things coming together. Next thing I did was to check what the fib retracement level to see if price came and hit that resistance level what the ratio would be. Surprisingly, it was 61.8. Sweet So now I have 3 things coming together. So how did I take the trade then I switched to the 1hr timeframe and waited for price to come and hit the confluence zone and saw a shooting star, a bearish reversal Candlestick pattern (also sometimes called a bearish pin bar). That was my clue to execute a short trade right there. Heres is a close up of how the trade setup looked like in the 1hr where I was waiting to take the trade(see chart below): I risked 50 pips for this trade and later Im going to set the previous swing low as my profit target which is 215 pips and if my profit target gets hits, I will make 7 times what I risked initially. Good thing as I was stilling writing this guide this trade played out so I can show you what happened: As you can see, I managed to make 138 pips on the first trade. Note also that I also made a 2 nd trade which made 125pips as well. Even though my profit target was not hit, I used trailing stop loss as shown below until I got stopped out when price moved back up. Thats the beauty about these kinds of trades: They are really low risk-high reward entry trades. They have great chance of being profitable. Theres two ways you will learn from price action: First is to spend hours over your charts analysing what happened in the past and asking these types of questions: Why did price make a big upward move from here and why did price make a big downward move from here What price action signals that formed there that could have given anybody an indication that this massive move was about to happen You will be bloody surprised at what type of reversal candlesticks and chart patterns you will find. Then with that knowledge, get back to the present and see if you can see these patterns unfolding in the current market. Heres an example of a doji candlestick confluence with the dominant downtrend, as if formed telling you to sell the market with the trend. This short trade setup had 4 factors of confluence supporting it : The doji had confluence with the dominant downtrend, as it formed telling you to sell the market with the trend. The doji showed a clear indecision by the sellers and the buyers therefore the breakout of the low of doji candlestick was what the sellers were waiting for to push the market down. The doji candlestick also formed between 50-61.8 fibonacci retracement zone. The moving averages providing dynamic resistance. Heres another example: Now, I can put lots of charts giving you examples of what happened in the pastbut its best that now you see and understand what I am explaining here, and then go and sit down and observe what happens on your charts in real time. All this information here is providing you the foundation the basic framework you need to trade price action, the learning comes from observing and doing. CHAPTER 16: TOP 2 REASONS WHY I USE MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS AND TRADING There are 2 main reasons why I use multi-timeframe trading: For getting better trade entries For reducing stop loss distance so I have better risk:reward ratio which means I can also increase the amount of contracts I trade without risking more of my trading accountso if my trade direction is right, I make a lot more money Now, I will explain both in detail How To Get Better Trade Entries And So Reduce Your Stop Loss Distance With Multi-Timeframe Analysis And Trading If you are trading strictly using the large timeframes like the daily chart, your stop loss distance will be huge and the issue with that is your risk:reward ratio can be reduced (no necessarily all the time): Risk to Reward Ratio Explained Simply put, investing money into the investment markets has a high degree of risk, and if youre going to take the risk, the amount of money you stand to gain needs to be big. If somebody you marginally trust asks for a 50 loan and offers to pay you 60 in two weeks, it might not be worth the risk, but what if they offered to pay you 100 The risk of losing 50 for the chance to make 100 might be appealing. So in that case your risk:reward ratio will be 1:2 But what if you decided that you want to minimize your stop loss distance And even though you are trading with a setup in the daily chart, for your trade entry, you are actually switching to the smaller timeframe and watching for a sell signal in the 1hr timeframe Well, what Ive just described is a really good example of multi-timeframe trading to get better trade entries. Lets study a chart of what happened in the past to make you understand what I am talking about This chart below is a daily chart and shows a triple top pattern in a solid resistance level. Price has been pushed down twice from this level and when the third time it price reaches this level, it was pushed down again. Now, you can see the bearish harami reversal candlestick pattern and you could have used this as your sell signal by placing a pending sell stop order just a few pips under the low. And placed your stop loss outside of the resistance line as shown on the chart above. But if you switched to the 1hr chart to wait for trade entry, your stop loss distances would be very small in comparison to the daily timeframe as shown by the chart below(Ive zoomed in to get in closer): Now, lets compare both trades in the daily chart: Notice that for the 1hr trade entry, it was done almost at the very top and the stop loss distance was very small in comparison to the trade taken in the daily timeframe. Which means that the risk:reward of the 1hr timeframe trade is a lot better than what you would get in the daily. Now, you can do this with daily timeframe and 4hrs or even down to the 30 and 15 minute timeframes. Or you can watch trade setups in the 4hr but switch to either the 1hr, 30mins, 15min and 5mins for your trade entries. I often use the 1hr for my trade entries and can even go down to 5min timeframe for my entries. If you are new trader, stick to 1hr or 4hr timeframe for your trade entries. So when you trade in the 1hr timeframe (or much smaller timeframe) you can actually trade a lot more contracts without risking more because your stop loss distance are very small compared to the larger timeframe trade. For example, the stop loss for the 1hr timeframe trade is 20 pips but for the daily timeframe trade is 80 pips. Lets say that you have a 10,000 account and you risk 2(200) each trade. If you trade in the daily chart, that stop loss of 80 pips is roughly 800 so to keep your risk at 2 the amount of contracts you will trade will be 0.25. However If youve traded in the 1hr you can be able to trade 1 standard lot. This simple example explains why I wait patiently for trade setups to happen in the monthly, weekly, daily, 4hr timeframes and then use smaller timeframes to get good trade entries. This is the beauty of multi-timeframe trading using price action. Let me give one more example of multi-time frame analysisAs Im writing this book (the date now is 5 th of Dec 2014), I can see that EURJPY has been on an uptrend since July 2012 on the monthly charts and I can also see that there is resistance level at 149.115 which it hit already. This is the monthly chart: Now, lets zoom in on the daily chart and see what the price action is like on where the arrow is pointing (see chart below): Ok, I begin to see whats happeningso obviously, EURJPY has been rejected down on the 149.115 resistance level with the formation of the shooting star (bearish candlestick signal) but now, I can see that its going back up to test that level again. Two things can happen here: Price is going to hit the resistance level and head back down ( and I will be waiting for a bearish reversal candlestick there to sell when I see one). Or its going to break it and if it breaks it, theres a significant resistance level above it you can see on the monthly chart. Now, lets go down into the 4hr chart to see what is happening there as well So now you can see how I do my multi-timeframe analysis to get down a timeframe where I execute a trade at a very good price level or entry point whilst keeping my stop loss distance tight. Now, here the thing about larger timeframes: They cover up trading setups that are happening in smaller timeframes that could be really reliable trading setups. But when you switch back and forth between timeframes, you begin to see how you can trade the larger timeframes setups based on the setups that happen in the smaller timeframes. For this eurjpy setup above, Im going to be sitting down and watching it to see if I get a bearish reversal candlestick in the 1hr or the 4hr. its probably going to happen tonight in maybe 4-8hrs time but the price is getting close to that resistance level. I really dont like trading breakouts where I see the price has been overextend for a long period of time so even if this one breakouts to the upside, I will not be buying. I will be waiting for a pullback to buy, if that happens. CHAPTER 17: TRADE THE OBVIOUS I hope you have learnt how powerful price action trading can be. Now, not all trading setups you see will become winners. But heres the thingif your losses are small but your profits are large, you will always be in be out in front. Thats why trading risk management is important. When you are watching the chart for trading setups, you need see and trade the obvious. What do I mean by that Well, if there is an obvious pattern on the chart and you can see it clearly, then you should know that there are thousands of traders out there are watching the exact same thing as you are doingbecause its so obvious . Trendlines or channels or bullish pin bar forming on major support level, if you can see that, there are many that will be seeing the same thing. All these traders will be waiting to see what happens at these levels and say if a bullish hammer forms on a major support level, then guess what will happen next The most likely outcome of that is that as soon as the high of the hammer candlestick is broken, price will shoot up Trade the obvious How many times have you ever went over your chart and you are like: Goodness me I should have taken a trade here and look at how the market moved after that bearish shooting star candlestick was formed after hitting the resistance level. When you trade the obvious, then you trade with what everybody else is seeing and in essence you are really doing piggy-back, riding on the market move created by all these orders that puts the odds in your favour. See chart below for this: if you see a support major support level and price is heading down to it and at the same time, that support level is coinciding with an upward trendline What does this mean Thats Confluence buddy And then you see a bullish Piercing line reversal candlestick form right at the area of confluence. Are you going to be undecided about this price signal and pull up stochastic or CCI indicator to really make sure (give you confidence) you need to buy. NO need for thatJust Trade the obvious CHAPTER 18: CLOSING REMARKS Some things I have learnt: Levels are not lines drawn in concrete, they get broken . You see, the more a level is tested multiple times, sooner or later it will get broken. From my observations, 2-3 times is the average, after that, expect a breakout of the level. Dont listen to analysts . They can stuff up your decision making process and cloud your judgement. For example: I see a sell setup on my chart but because Ive read the analysts report that says he is bullish on this currency pair because of this and that reason . I hesitate to pull the trigger. Later, I check the chart and see that If I had sold, I would have made money. So use your own independent judgment based on what you see on your charts. Find your best timeframe to trade . Your personality, work circumstances etc may dictate what timeframe you can use. For me, I can trade from the 4hr, 1hr down the 5 amp 1 min charts because I use multi-timeframe trading. Yes, there will be people that will say You are crazy to be trading in the smaller timeframes like the 5min and 1minute because theres too much noise in the smaller timeframes. Yes, I know thatThe whole point of me switching to lower timeframes is this: to get better trade entries. You dont have to do that, thats my style . Thats what I like. If the bus leaves you, dont chase the bus In other words dont chase trades. If you are late to get into a trade at an optimal entry point and realized that you might miss out, then back off and wait. There will always be another opportunity or wait for a retraceretestpullback etc and then enter. Be patient for the right trading setups to form. If you are suffering from losing streaks, take a break . Take a week off from trading to clear up your mind then come back with a clear mind to trade. If you have winning streaks, dont get overconfident and risk more. You streaks of losses may be just around the corner. If youve enjoyed going through my price action trading course . please dont forget to share, tweet, like and link to it by clicking those sharing buttons on the left side of this page. Eu realmente iria apreciar isso. Obrigado. If you could shed some light of the trading system you are using ( with charts 038 examples) of what you are talking about, maybe I can give you a proper answer. With multi-timeframe trading, the lower timeframe does not necessarily have to be in the same direction as the larger timeframe. If you are using price action, what you are looking for is the 8216SIGNAL8221 when the lower timeframe starts showing indication that price may potentially start following the trend in the larger timeframe. That8217s the time you take a trade with the ancipation that the lower timeframe trend will start turning to follow the main trend in the larger timeframe. You will notice that: (1) the main trend was up up on the daily timeframe (the larger timeframe) (2) switching to lower timeframe, 4hr or 1hr to wait there for sell signals (bearish reversal candlesticks) Based on this example, you can see that daily trend was up, even the 4hr or 1 hr trend was heading up as well. But the key to this whole thing was the 8220trade setup8221 that was seen many days before it happened. Vishal Mahajan 6 months ago I am from India and has been a kind of active trader from last many years. From last couple of years i am into price action trading and finally the account is moving to a positive direction. Though most of the things you shared above. i was already aware of but still learnt few concepts that i think can provide an extra edge to my trading. A VERY BIG THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND EFFORT FOR PUTTING THIS EXCELLENT MATERIAL IN A SINGLE PAGE THAT TOO IN A VERY DETAILED MANNER. As a token of gratitude i am sharing couple of very important and knowledgeable links with you. Please visit them whenever you get a chance 8211 HAPPY TRADING amp AGAIN THANKS FOR EVERYTHING. Hilman 2 months ago Hi Rkay I would like to ask for advice to you. for 5 months, I learned a demo account and start to profit consistently. I want to start a real account with an initial capital of 150, what is approximately lavarage should I use. and how many risks I use. I had been using lavarage 1: 200 and the risk of 5 of the capital. I hope you give advice and risk lavarage what should I use thank you Hi Hilman, you need figure out the answers to those questions yourself. If you are starting a live trading account with 150, the question needs to be asked: would you be satisfied with a 5 profit each trade Or even a 1 profit each trade If your trading account cannot support the contract sizes that would equate to the type of profits that you8217d like to see happening, then the chances are you are going to take a lot of risks on your 150 trading account to 8220meet that expectation8221. and that is something i cannot tell you what you should do. Leverage is totally irrelevant. How much risk per trade is. Hilman 2 months agoTop Trading Opportunities for 2017 Indecision ruled much of 2016 as it had the year before. Global equities and the Dollar carved out broad ranges rather than extend the trends of previous years. That complacency was shaken however in the final quarter of the year. A buildup of major event risk from Brexit to the US Presidential election to the second Fed rate hike put markets back in motion. Will revived trends hold true into the New Year or is volatility the only holdover to depend on These are the DailyFX Teams top trade opportunities for 2017. John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist: GBPJPY Combines a Depressed Pound and Risk Trends David Song, Currency Analyst: Tracking Key Market Themes Beyond Monetary Policy Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor: A Typically Quiet EURGBP May Provide an Outsized Move Paul Robinson, Currency Analyst: NZDUSD, GoldSilver Setting Up for More Losses Before Hitting a Low Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist: Cyclical USDZAR Downswing May Be at Hand Tyler Yell, CMT, Forex Trading Instructor: Awaiting Aggressive Bullish Bounce In Gold From Higher-Low Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist: Avoiding the Trump Trade Rollercoaster - Short EUR vs. GBP, JPY Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor: Finding Potential Trading Opportunities in EURGBP Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist: Short EURUSD, Long USDJPY Martin Essex, Market Analyst an d Editor: EURJPY Faces Rising European Troubles, Brighter Japanese Horizons Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist: AUDJPY Breakout at Initial Resistance - Constructive Above 80.60 David Cottle, Market Analyst: What if the Fed has Under-Gunned its Rate Hike Call James Stanley, Currency Analyst: Long EURAUD Buy Support, Sell Resistance Oliver Morrison, Market Analyst: British Pound Set for Further Gains on Japans Yen Nick Cawley, Market Analyst: GBP Recovery Against EUR Likely on the Cards in 2017 John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist: GBPJPY Combines a Depressed Pound and Risk Trends There are a number of glaring fundamental themes that will need to be addressed in 2017 from the markets continuous discount of the Feds forecast to the rise of trade boundaries in a shift towards protectionism. However, many of these overbearing threats have neither a significant skew between potential and probability nor are they attached to a clear fundamental trigger that can offer a reasonable sense of timing for resolution. Given that trading is largely the smart management of probabilities, it is important to find opportunities that can contain the widest array of favorable outcomes and the greatest amplitude with a positive course. A long GBPJPY view appeals to me because it speaks to two critical, heavily-skewed themes: Sterling depressed by Brexit uncertainty and an evolution of risk trends. The Sterling component of this setup is relatively straightforward. The UKs currency has suffered an unceremonious devaluation with the countrys vote to withdrawal from the European Union. This sustained depression reflects uncertainty and worst-case-scenario assumptions in the absence of clear procedures to navigate the divorce. It is likely that negotiations between the two sides will be tense and the United Kingdoms economy will be worse off on a number of aspects, but it is very unlikely to be the crisis state that is currently priced in. We will start to reassess the balance of fear that suppresses the country and currency in the first quarter of 2017. Prime Minister Theresa May is due to lay out plans for negotiation in the opening months, and - should she stick to the planned time line for invoking Article 50 - to start the procedure at the end of March. The speculative bias behind the Pound offers up a number of appealing opportunities (including EURGBP which sees the Euro showing little tangible appreciation of its own loss in this divorce), but GBPJPY leverages that fundamental opportunity by adding a second fundamental theme with a particular skew: risk trends. As it stands, timing is very important to trading GBPJPY. While the Sterlings contribution to this situation is already grounded by speculative excess, the Yen poses a near-term risk to a bullish view. All Yen crosses are highly correlated to market-wide risk appetite. With its current bearings, speculative reach is excessive across many assets and on most fundamental measures. Below is a chart showing a risk favorite SP 500 US equity index versus a basic Risk-Reward Index (an aggregate G-10, 10-year government bond yield divided by an FX volatility index). Data Source: Bloomberg. Prepared by John Kicklighter A risk correction is overdue, and the GBPJPY is unlikely to escape the downdraft. That said, the flush is not going to find an excess of speculative loiterers holding a long position given the exchange rates extraordinary low level and the absolute lack of carry the pair offers. After the painful but necessary risk scourge however, the market will be less fixated on jumping on a bandwagon of hollow momentum and instead prize genuine potential for return on depressed assets. A deeply discounted Pound with a recovering UK GDP and Bank of England not too far off from normalizing policy will lay an appealing landscape for such appetite. In the chart below, the candlestick series is GBPJPY and the pale red line is GBPEUR (EURGBP inverted). The technical appeal relative to other Yen and Sterling crosses is worth taking a look at, but it is the fundamental scenarios behind GBPJPY that truly speak to its bullish potential over the medium to long-term. That is why it is at the top of my list for trade opportunities in 2017. Charts: Tradingview. Prepared by John Kicklighter Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist: Cyclical USDZAR Downswing May Be at Hand Since the end of the Bretton Woods era, USDZAR has more or less gone straight up. The only notable peaks on this chart are 2001 and 2008, which are 7 years apart. Work backwards in 7 year cycles and youll notice that 1987, 1980, and 1973 are pivot lows (1994 was nothing). 7 years after 2008 is 2015 (remember, were looking at yearly closes). The decline from 2001 lasted 3 years and the decline from 2008 lasted 2 years. Its possible that 2016 is the first year of another decline. The tops in 2001, 2008, and 2015 are blow-off tops. The blow-off portions of the rallies occur following breaks through the top of a channel. Once the market comes back into the channel, a reversal is considered underway towards the point from which the blow-off advance originated. This point is defined as the level where price last touched the support line. The circles on the chart denote the origin points. The target in this case is 10.9070. Similarities to Previous Tops Especially 2001 USDZAR fell in 3 waves from December 2001 to June 2002 and then rallied in 3 waves from June 2002 to August 2002. Weakness then accelerated through 2004. USDZAR fell in 3 waves from October 2008 to January 2009 and then rallied in 3 waves from January 2009 to March 2009. Weakness then accelerated through 2010. USDZAR fell in 3 waves from January 2016 to August 2016 and has traded sideways for 4 months. Its critical that shorts are not established until the long term trendline is broken. A break below the trendline and subsequent check on the trendline from below as resistance would be even better for entry. Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist: Avoiding the Trump Trade Rollercoaster - Short EUR vs. GBP, JPY Reality humbled smug prognosticators convinced that UK voters will vote to stay in the European Union, that Hillary Clinton will win the US presidential election, and that OPEC will fail to strike an output cut deal yet again. The road ahead looks no less treacherous and attempting to divine where it may lead seems no less foolish. Much will depend on how the Fed will react to the as-yet unknown impact of policies put forward by the Trump administration. Will big-league fiscal stimulus really goose up growth, spur inflation and steepen the on-coming rate hike path The markets seem to think so, but no really one knows for sure. It is impossible to say with confidence that a boost from infrastructure spending, tax cuts and deregulation will not be offset if the President-elect gives in to his protectionist streak. Pretending this is not a possibility looks like wishful thinking. The US economy is the single largest engine of global demand and the US Dollar is the worlds undisputed reserve currency, serving as the medium of exchange for close to 80 percent of all transactions. That means that answering this question will set direction for nearly every benchmark asset across the financial markets. Crafting a robust strategy for the year against this backdrop will mean avoiding trades that force investors to take bets on world-changing outcomes, at least for now. Instead, it seems prudent to look for opportunities that sidestep them altogether. Selling the Euro against the British Pound and the Yen seems to fit the bill. The Japanese unit and the single currency look similar heading into 2017. It may turn out that losses against a Trump-ed up US Dollar and an OPEC-driven crude oil rally will finally speed up price growth enough to consider scaling back ECB and BOJ stimulus. Then again, it may not. In either case, both central banks actions would be driven by the same narrative and may turn out be a wash on-net. The Euro will have to contend with tremendous political uncertainty however as Germany and France head to the polls. Anti-establishment forces have gained ground in both countries. The past year ought to have taught investors not to discount the threat of populist insurrection in heretofore bastions of the Western status quo. This means worries about election outcomes in the heart of the Eurozone may weigh on the Euro independently of how the big-picture global narrative develops. Another concern is the start of Brexit negotiations. The Euro soared against the Pound after the Leave campaign emerged triumphant but uncertainty about implementation will almost surely cool growth on both sides of the English Channel, meaning that Sterling looks somewhat cheap relative to its Continental counterpart. Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor: A Typically Quiet EURGBP May Provide an Outsized Move Focusing on the technical pictures, some cross pairs may surprise in 2017. We wrote about Sterling last year ( More Than Irish Look for the Pot of Gold ) and it followed through as anticipated. This year, EURGBP is one that as the year progresses it may set up for another strong leg higher. The move from July 2015 to October 2016 appears to be a 5-wave move to start a new trend. We know from Elliott Wave Theory that 5-wave moves to start a new trend typically have a partner in an alternating wave of similar size. Therefore, as price corrects this 2015-2016 trend higher, we will look to identifying levels that may support the correction prior to another leg higher. Keep the Fibonacci retracement levels handy on the chart from July 2015 to October 2016. The 61.8 retracement level comes in near 0.7810. Coincidentally, the former resistance line (purple dotted line) crosses near this same level. We know from support and resistance training that former resistance, when broken, can act like new support in the future. Therefore, if price corrects lower, we may see a positive reaction near 0.75 0.78. At that point, we will anticipate another move higher of similar size as the July 2015 to October 2016 trend. That move was nearly 2300 pips so we will look for a bounce higher of approximately 1400 (61.8 of 2300) or possibly 2300 pips. That suggests upside targets near 0.92 and possibly 1.01. Wait for price to finish the correction lower. If trade prints below the July 2015 low of 0.69, then another pattern is in the works. Keeping with the Sterling theme, we will also be monitoring GBPJPY and specifically if a correction develops. The structure of a correction lower in GBPJPY develops will help set the tone if we can anticipate a partial correction or move to new lows. If the move develops as a 3 wave corrective move, then GBPJPY would be in a similar boat as EURGBP in that another strong leg higher may carry it towards 160s and possibly 175 later in the year. Join Jeremy for the US Opening Bell webinars to keep up to date on these trends plus other Elliott Wave patterns he is following. Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist: AUDJPY Breakout at Initial Resistance - Constructive Above 80.60 Prepared by Michael Boutros Last year we highlighted a broad descending median-line formation off the 2013 2014 highs while noting that, The broader focus remains weighted to the downside while below this threshold (the upper parallel) with a break below the September low-week reversal close at 85.47, targeting subsequent objectives at the 81.84-82.80 range the 50 retracement of the advance off the 2008 low at 80.16. A critical longer-term support zone rest lower at 72.05-74.20 . Indeed this critical support barrier marked the low this year with the subsequent rebound in price marking the largest quarterly advance since 4Q of 2012. The pair has stretched back into key near-term resistance at 87.5564 ahead of the yearly close - this level is defined by the 2016 open, the 50 retracement of the 2014 decline and the median-line of the ascending pitchfork extending off the February low. While the immediate long-bias is vulnerable, a broader bottoming process off previous yearly range lows may be underway here and heading into 2017 the outlook remains weighted to the topside while within this ascending formation with interim support eyed at 81.5897. Key confluence support bullish invalidation rests just lower at the convergence of the 52-week moving average the 2011 parallel around 80.60 (also the origin of the Q4 breakout). Bottom line: well be looking to fade weakness towards these levels early in the year with a breach above key resistance targeting subsequent topside objectives at 90.64-91.23 96.34. Tyler Yell, Forex Trading Instructor: Awaiting Aggressive Bullish Bounce In Gold From Higher-Low Markets bottom when the last seller has sold and markets top when the last buyer has bought. - Tom DeMark, DeMark Analytics One of the seemingly great ironies of the outcome of the U. S. Election was how wrong many market participants were to anticipate price outcome of a possible Trump victory. After President-elect Trump declared victory in the early hours of November 9, 2016, the market unexpectedly rallied in a full risk-on mode that lasted well into December. Many traders thought Trump would cause markets to go risk-off and that Gold and JPY would be the big beneficiary of a Trump victory with both appreciating aggressively. However, since the November 9 intra-day high on XAUUSD just north of 1,340oz, the price of Gold has fallen 17 or nearly 230soz by mid-December. Similarly, the Japanese Yen has weakened by 1,335 pips as of the time of this writing against, which is worth a loss of nearly 14.6 in a months time. While the market moved aggressively against haven assets and currencies like Gold and JPY, a trader should be on the watch for the scene setting up for a Bullish Gold move in early 2017. The main components that lead me to be on heightened watch for a Bullish Gold reversal are the steep slope of the price decline and the sentiment extremes developing. The price of Gold has fallen into the 0.618-0.786 retracement zone of the December 15-July rally that saw the price of Gold rising by 32.2 or 330oz from 1,046oz to as high as 1,376oz. There appears to be no more hated asset class going into 2017 than Gold as per the Daily Sentiment Index. DSI shows in mid-December there are 10 bulls in Gold (90 Bears leading long-term bonds or T-bonds and T-notes in second and third place with 11 and 12 respectively. If you look at the start of 2016, there were aggressive calls for the price of crude oil to drop 10 a barrel and the US dollar to push ever higher while equity markets were hated asset class. Fast forward to the end of 2016 and the dollar did turnaround after falling 8 from the January high to early May low. The dollar rallied over 11 from the May low of 91.92. Oil rallied over 111 from February to December and might be pulling away on a bullish head and shoulders pattern that could turn towards 60 a barrel. The SP 500 rose by over 26 from its February low after falling 13.3 in the first month of trading 2016. This recent bout of market history is worth remembering as Gold could take the prize for strong reversal alongside with Bonds as trading gets underway in 2017. While there is euphoria going on with the weak JPY EUR, the strong USD has some feeling that all is right in global markets. However, we should remain on the watch in early 2017 that Gold could benefit from a mispriced euphoria. Considering Gold appears to be the most hated asset in the futures market adds to the appeal that a breakout in 2017 to the upside in Gold may have a lot of room to run higher. Golds younger digital brother Bit-Coin (BTCUSD), which is another haven asset has a bullish range for 2016 of 440 USD with a bullish range from low to high of 125. Other correlated assets to Gold are also in a strong bear market that would need to reverse before entering a long Gold trade in 2017. Awaiting Bullish Cues: Naturally, a downtrend does not automatically equal a buying opportunity. Before entertaining a long view, I would like to see momentum and a repricing of markets upon the information that can lead to a good trade. In the current environment with equities at all-time highs, Yen staying weak, and bond yields rallying, we will await the right time for gold to turn Gold course. By the time I bullish Gold, the price will need to be above the daily Ichimoku Cloud along with the lagging line also above the cloud (lagging line price from 26-periods ago). Also, given the stirrings going on in the market with very extreme bearish sentiment and Haven assets being sold off, euphoria in risky assets alongside uncertainty in future global trade and growth potential for equity earnings, Gold may be setting up for an early 2017 rally in a similar way it rallied in H1 2016. If so, thats a move I want to take advantage of. Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT with TradingView Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist: Short EURUSD, Long USDJPY Leave your preconceived notions in 2016: 2017 will be unlike any year in recent memory. After a wave election in which one party swept control of both halves of Congress as well as the Presidency, Republicans are in the rare position of being able to end legislative gridlock in Washington, which should translate into fiscal stimulus for the US economy. Regardless of ideology, whichever singular party has tended to be in control after a wave election has pursued fiscal easing strategies: the US budget deficit grew by an average of 0.4 of GDP during those 18 years. It seems that a Trump administration would uphold its bargain of running up the structural deficit as typically is the case during singular party control of the government. Deficit spending in the form of a massive infrastructure spending bill, combined with sweeping tax reform, should prove to be significantly inflationary. Higher inflation expectations should translate into further gains for US Treasury yields (and was doing so in Q416 via steeper Fed rate hike expectations), which will be tremendously helpful for the US Dollar in context of the current environment that the Euro and the Japanese Yen find the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan operating in: implementing aggressive easing policies to keep rates at the short-end of the yield curve as low as possible, at any cost. The ECBs decision in early-December to alter how its QE program is undertaken can erode the markets desire to hold Euros over the medium-term. With the decision to buy 1-year debt, the ECB has signaled that it is basically altering policy to be able to keep the front-end of European yield curves pinned to the floor. Between the ECBs policy shift and the Feds signaling for a faster pace of rate hikes, the German-US 2-year yield spread has widened out significantly in the past few weeks, proving to be the driving force behind EURUSD weakness. Another 50-bps of widening in the German-US 2-year yield spread (mirroring the move in November and December 2016) could see EURUSD down towards 0.9500 in the first half of 2017 well look for a test of parity in Q117. The same can be said about whats happening with the Japanese Yen. In a rising yield environment where the BOJ is pegging the JGB 10-year yield at or below 0, the Japanese Yen stands out to be a loser. Interest rate differentials (US-Japanese 10-year yield spreads) have moved sharply against the Yen, and appear poised to do so for the foreseeable future (three - to six-months). Another 100-bps widening in the US-Japanese 10-year yield spread (mirroring the move in November and December 2016) could see USDJPY reach its 2015 highs near 125.70 in Q117 before 130.00 later in the year. The President-elect Trump reflation trade could very-well last into Q1 or Q217, albeit in fits and starts, before trouble emerges. Well want to revisit the calls for short EURUSD and long USDJPY by mid-year. At some point, well pass through the threshold where rising US yields are seen a burden for debt sustainability concerns, but that probably wont happen until late-2017 or early-2018. David Song, Currency Analyst: Tracking Key Market Themes Beyond Monetary Policy Long: AUDJPY, Nikkei 225 The pickup in risk sentiment has triggered a meaningful development across the major global benchmark indices, with the Nikkei 225 breaking out the bull-flag formation carried over from 2015, while currency pairs such as AUDJPY are highlighting a similar dynamic all ahead of 2017. Nikkei 225 Monthly After bouncing off of former trendline resistance in the first-half of the year, Japans benchmark equity index may further retrace the decline from back in the 1990s as a bull-flag formation starts to unfold. The continuation pattern instills a bullish outlook for the year ahead especially as the Nikkei 225 begins to carve a weekly series of higher highs lows, and the ongoing easing-cycle at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue to shore up risk appetite as the central bank will continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI (all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner. Despite the 7 to 2 split at the last interest rate decision for 2016, the bar remains high for the BoJ to move its quantitativequalitative-easing program (QQE) with Yield Curve-Control as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. continue to cast a dovish outlook for monetary policy and warn inflation expectations have remained in a weakening phase. As a result, the topside targets for the Nikkei 225 will largely be in focus for 2017 as the upswing in market sentiment looks to persist on the back of the highly accommodative policy stance at the BoJ. The rise in risk appetite also appears to have sparked carry-trade interest, with AUDJPY highlighting a material shift in market behavior as it breaks out of the downward trending channel carried over from late-2014. A similar reference can be found in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the oscillator flashes a bullish trigger ahead of 2017. The key developments favor opportunities to buy-dips in the Aussie-Yen, and the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) policy meetings for the year ahead may further boost the appeal of the higher-yielding currency should the central bank show a greater willingness to gradually move away from its easing-cycle. After cutting the official cash rate to a fresh record-low of 1.50 in August, the central bank now under Governor Philip Lowe looks poised to retain the current stance over the coming months as officials see inflation returning to more normal levels over the policy horizon. Despite concerns surrounding the regions AAA-credit rating, the RBA may adopt a more hawkish tone in 2017 as globally, the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time, and the diverging path for monetary policy may fuel greater interest in AUDJPY should Governor Lowe continue to talk down speculation for lower borrowing-costs. With that said, key themes beyond monetary policy may play a greater role in driving volatility across the financial markets, and the shift in market behavior instills a bullish outlook for the Nikkei 225 and the AUDJPY exchange rate as the reach for yield looks to persist in 2017. James Stanley, Currency Analyst: Long EURAUD Buy Support, Sell Resistance Trying to forecast a year in advance, especially from a macro-economic point-of-view, can be difficult and perhaps even disastrous. If youd have said last year that 2016 would see both the U. K. deciding to leave Europe after the Brexit referendum, and the election of Donald Trump to the top-post in the United States, youd probably be pretty hard-pressed to find anyone that actually believed you. Next year could be equally or, perhaps even more volatile than 2016 especially for Europe as we head towards election cycles in the key regions of France and Germany. Combine this with continued-crisis in the banking sector of Italy, and there are some very big question marks for Europe next year. But what we do know is that the ECB is effectively tapering QE by reducing purchases after March and the bank may not have enough ammunition to do another round. Also of interest is the fact that the Euro has had a difficult time heading lower as we approach the widely-watched parity figure on the U. S. Dollar. When the ECB first announced QE in July of 2014, EURUSD drove all the way down to 1.0462. But after QE actually began in March of 2015, EURUSD remained supported above this prior-low. It wasnt until the Federal Reserve ramped-up hawkishness for 2017 that EURUSD finally broke-below that support. But not many currencies are as strong as the U. S. Dollar with the post-Election back-drop. Rather than looking to buy support on the Euro against the U. S. Dollar, which could foreseeably continue to strengthen for months ahead long-Euro setups could be directed towards the Australian Dollar. Australia still has some room to cut rates, a new Central Bank head in Phillip Lowe, and the potential for more-pressure (or weakness) to emanate from China. But what makes the long setup attractive is the risk-reward on the monthly chart. After setting a fresh-high in August of last year at 1.6586, the pair has spent much of the time since in some form of congestion. The past three months have seen support show up at the 50 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent major move, taking the August 2012 low to that August 2015-high. Stops on the position can be set to 1.3400, which would get the level below the 61.8 retracement of that most recent major move. Top-side targets could be sought at 1.4683 (to adjust stop to break-even), 1.5000 (major psychological level), 1.5273 (long-term Fibonacci level), 1.5500 (prior price action swing), 1.6000 (major psychological level) and 1.6405 (another long-term Fibonacci level near 8-year high). Paul Robinson, Market Analyst: NZDUSD, potential for a return to the long-term trend-line NZDUSD was not kind to big picture bears during most of 2016, but there is reason to believe this could change in 2017 as momentum from the swoon in Q4 may be the beginning of a big leg lower. The low created in August 2015 took Kiwi higher for longer than many expected. Many market participants, self-included, were looking for the downtrend which began in 2014 to resume at an earlier time. The upward grind in Kiwi from the 2015 low morphed into a defined channel, or bear-flag in this case. After being rejected near 7500 its currently testing the bottom-side parallel of the pattern. An official break of the formation will be considered with a strong closing weekly bar beneath the lower trend-line. There are several targeted points of support along the way towards the big picture target. Levels to watch include the May 16 low at 6673, trend-line from the 2009 low ( 64756550), Jan 16 low at 6348, the Aug 15 low at 6197, then the final target arrives at the 2000 current trend-line. The trend-line clocks in around 5900 (- 50 points), or about 15 lower from here. Trading this theme: This is highly dependent on the time-frame which one operates on, but the idea on this end is to wait for a confirmed break and then look to retracements on the daily chart. Once broken, the rising trend-line will go from being viewed as support to resistance. In addition, interest will be taken in any attempts to trade up to the downtrend line off the 2014 high. It seems unlikely if the bearish view is correct it will trade that high, but if Kiwi does it wont undermine the outlook until it can successfully trade above the trend-line. Gold silver look headed lower, but important support levels hold the key Gold looks poised to continue disappointing investors. The trend since the 2011 peak remains lower and should key levels on the downside fail to hold, gold could find itself continue winding lower in rapid fashion. There is significant support in the 105000 region. If this zone is broken, then watch for momentum to accelerate. Before the big region is tested, though, there is a trend-line of minor significance which could be enough to provide a bounce it rises up from the 2008 low to around the 1100 mark. Below that trend-line and through 1000 there isnt anything substantial in the way of price support until down to around 730680 (2006 high2008 low). Thats an aggressive move, but again, given the lack of major price support it could become a reality. Other levels below 1000 arrive at the bottom-side trend-line running lower from the 2013 low ( 97560), along with pivots from 2009 at 905 and 865. Trading this theme: In Q4, gold broke the key 11801200 region extending back to 2013. A rally into that zone (perhaps from the 2008 trend-line) will be viewed as a point of interest to look for weakness to set in and potentially position for a move into the important 105000 support zone, or worse. If gold drops into the 105000 area, caution will be warranted from the short-side given its significance. This is the line-in-the sand for gold bulls. Hold, then a sizable rally may develop, but if it breaks then things might get ugly. It just may be what the bear market needs to end, a final flush after several years of carrying lower. Silver is obviously setting up similarly to gold, but with its own twist. Silver is currently heading back to a trend-line in place since 2003, which will be a very important inflection point. The level is currently around 14.50. A break below there will clear a path to the late-2015 low at 13.65. Similar levels to gold should it fall below the 2015 low are 12.46, 11.83, then nothing significant to the left until 8.45. The long-term trend-line looks likely to be met soon, and whether it can hold there or at the 2015 low could hold significant long-term implications. Kiwi and precious metals are highly correlated, worth noting for positioning purposes The 52-week correlation between Kiwi and goldsilver is 70 and 86, respectively. The long-term correlation between Kiwi and precious metals has been statistically significant, with the past two years sporting a range between 42 and 90. If positioning on the same side in NZD and precious metals, traders will want to be aware of this correlation for risk management purposes. Keep in mind, this is a long-term correlation and the shorter the time-frame you look at the more noise there is in the correlation. Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor: Finding Potential Trading Opportunities in EURGBP 2016 held more than a few twists and turns in the market for traders. This is why it is always important to keep an eye on emerging and ongoing technical trends. Ultimately finding the trend will help make our decisions to buy and sell easier, but it can also help us know which pairs to target for the upcoming 2017 trading year. Currently the EURGBP is working on retracing much of its 2016 gains after testing a multi-year 78.6 retracement value. My preference is to find opportunities to sell the EURGBP under the standing 200 day moving average (MVA) which is currently found at .8305. This value is currently acting as technical price support for the pair, which suggest that traders may look for a breakout below this point. Not only would this be a strong technical hint that the trend is again turning bearish, but it would also potentially classify the 2016 move to .9270 as a lower high in a much broader bearish pattern. EURGBP Daily Chart Retracement Values Prepared by Walker England As with any trade idea, there are always two sides to each story. Traders should remember that there is always the possibility that the EURGBP may remain supported for the 2017 trading year. In this scenario, traders may choose to delete any existing entry orders to sell the EURGBP. If prices do increase, traders may look for the pair to make a move on the previous 2016 high at .9270. A move above this value would suggest that the pair is attempting to put in higher highs and may attempt a move on the multiyear 2009 high of .9804. Martin Essex, Currency Analyst: EURJPY Faces Rising European Troubles, Brighter Japanese Horizons The coming year looks likely to be an annus horribilis for the Euro. The Italian banking system remains in crisis and there are national elections in Germany, France, the Netherlands and perhaps Italy all events that could spark Euro weakness. Add in record lows for two-year German bond yields the benchmark for the Euro-Zone plus the potential for difficult negotiations between the EU and the UK over Brexit, and its hard to see much support for the single currency in the months to come. While the obvious trade against this background would be to short the Euro against the US Dollar, the problem with that is the markets skepticism that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will deliver the three US quarter-point interest-rate increases in 2017 that it predicted in December when it raised its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points (a quarter of a percentage point) to a range of 0.50 to 0.75, implying a year-end rate range of 1.25 to 1.50. Instead, the CME Group FedWatch tool, which is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, which have long been used to express the markets views on the likelihood of changes in US monetary policy, shows the most likely range by December 2017 at 1.00 to 1.25. That, in turn, suggests a lack of interest-rate support for the Dollar and potential currency weakness, particularly if nervousness grows about the economic policies of US President-Elect Donald Trump. By contrast, the Japanese Yen has plenty going for it. For a start, it is seen by some as a haven along with gold and US Treasuries to shelter in when markets are risk-averse, as they are likely to be in 2017. Moreover, recent Japanese economic indicators have been healthy and core inflation may have bottomed out. In addition, EURJPY has been climbing for the past six months, suggesting room for a correction. Chart: EURJPY 1-Week (June 2014 - December 2016) While any tightening of Japanese monetary policy is not on the cards, its notable that net speculative short Yen positions have reached their highest level since December 2015, according to data compiled by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Any short covering would likely boost the Japanese currency. On the other side of the coin, theres plenty of political event risk ahead for the Euro. For a start, theres the Brexit negotiations, which will likely start at the end of March and could be long and tortuous. Then there are the elections: in the Netherlands on March 15, followed by France in April and May, and then Germany between August and October. In all three, far-Right and largely Euro-skeptic politicians will mount serious challenges to the incumbents. In Italy, too, there could be an election in 2017 in another country where populism is on the rise and, in addition, the banks are said to be saddled with more than 350 billion of bad loans. That said, there is plenty of support for EURJPY around the AugustSeptember 2016 lows of 112.0424 and then at the July 2016 lows close to 110.94. Both those areas would have to be breached before any slide back to the 100.00 levels last seen back in 2012. On the upside, any break above the 140.50 highs reached in June 2015 could lead to a sharpish rise back up to the levels around 150.00 recorded in December 2014. David Cottle, Currency Analyst What if the Fed has Under-Gunned its Rate Hike Call Think back to the end of December, 2015. The US Federal Reserve had just raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. The post-crisis Fed Funds rate of 0.0-0.25 was finally history. And, the Fed expected to make four more increases through 2016. The markets never quite believed that. Sure enough, they were right. For four rate hikes, read just one. Here we are at the end of 2016. The Fed has just raised rates again. It expects to be doing the same, thrice, through 2017. And guess what Markets dont quite believe it. Futures contracts suggest only two hikes. HoweverIts worth pointing out that rate-hike cycles can last longer than anyone thinks. Nobody has seen one since 2004 experts with experience will be a lot rarer. To take an obvious example we might go back to 1973. Then there was a generally weaker US Dollar. Wage and pricing controls boosted inflation, and it took some fighting. Between March 1972 and October 1973 rates went up from just over 3 to more than 10. Almost every hiking cycle since 1965 has involved more substantive increases than those currently envisaged by the Fed. Aha, you may now say. But we live in a low-inflation world, we wont need the same magnitude of interest rate rises to bring inflation expectations into line. Bom ponto. But history suggests inflation can be harder to control than it seems. Weve also had massive, inflationary fiscal stimulus, and rises for previously docile oil prices. Were also less sure about monetary transmission - the way central bank decisions affect economies. Ultra-low rates and money printing havent bought the growth they were once thought capable of. Might raising rates also fail as inflation brake Then there is President-elect Trump. If his campaign rhetoric is to be believed, we can expect a deliberately inflationary fiscal policy. Coming when US employment is already relatively high, its not hard to see such a program pushing up wages, and then prices. In short, the backdrop could be more inflationary than it has been for years. In that case, it makes sense to be long of the US Dollar and to remain long. It is probably best to express this via currency pairs for which rate rises on the non-dollar side are less likely, like the Euro or the British Pound. Gold would come in for even more severe punishment than that already meted out. US Treasury yields would also have to rise much further too. There are clear risks to this scenario. Trump may be less expansionary once in power. European Union worries may presage crisis. Chinas return to form may falter. But if all these can be avoided, we may find that we get higher US rates than the Fed now expects. Oliver Morrison, Currency Analyst: British Pound Set for Further Gains on Japans Yen In a nutshell: A weak Yen and resilient UK economy will likely result in a stronger GBPJPY. GBPJPY is up around 14 since the start of November, and looks set to continue making gains in 2017. Background. The Yen is weak, which is exactly where the Bank of Japan wants it. And little looks to be changing that. On December 19, the BoJ kept monetary policy steady, leaving rates at minus 0.1, a decision that weakened the Yen against its peers. The BoJ did raise its assessment of the economy for the first time in a year, noting the economy is continuing its moderate pace of recovery. But the Bank still has low inflation expectations. Inflation remains near zero, almost four years after the BoJ began enormous monetary stimulus. This suggests the Bank is unlikely to change its easing policy next year, which will keep the Yen weak. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg dont expect any additional easing before Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in 2018. The UK economy, meanwhile, keeps showing remarkable resilience after the shock vote to leave the European Union in June. The Pound crashed to record lows in the aftermath of the referendum. But its staged a modest recovery against a host of currencies in recent weeks. GBPJPY dipped 16.6 the day after the Brexit vote, but has slowly crept back to pre-referendum levels as the risks of a hard Brexit recede. Bearish bets against the Pound dropped for a second week on December 13, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the Brexit process is orderly and smooth, as Prime Minister Theresa May promises, the Pound will gain more strength. What are the key levels GBPJPY has been rising since the start of November. There is huge support around the 127.00 level from Octobers trading range. Resistance is at 152.50-163.50, which is the pre-UK referendum high achieved in February to May 2016. If these levels are breached, the next key zone is the 195-191 range hit between June and August 2015. Risks to this trade: Inflation catches alight in Japan and heads towards the BoJs 2 target, leading to a shift in policy from the Bank. Brexit risks finally appear in UK data prints, forcing interest rates, and the Pound, down as the Bank of England moves to avoid recession. Any indications the UK is heading towards a hard not soft Brexit will weigh on the currency. GBPJPY is traditionally volatile. Net speculative short Yen positions have reached their highest level since December 2015, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Any short covering would likely boost the Japanese currency, but hopefully, if youre long GBPJPY, only in the short term. Nick Cawley, Currency Analyst: GBP Recovery Against EUR Likely on the Cards in 2017 It has been a tough year for the British Pound with the June referendum vote for the UK to leave the European Union causing sterling to slump overnight in excess of 15 against the single currency. EURGBP jumped from a pre-Brexit level around 0.7600 to a spike high around 0.9200 and led to many commentators calling for the pair to trade at parity within a short-time frame. The British Pound also sold off sharply against the US Dollar as investors shunned the UK ahead of the start of the countrys formal divorce proceedings from Europe, expected by the end of March 2017. While sterling has remained at the lower levels against the US Dollar, prompted in part by the Federal Reserves decision to hike rates and the likelihood of another three increases in 2017, the UK currency has pulled back some of its losses against the single currency as the weak economic backdrop in the EU continues to weigh on the currency. And the growing tide of discontent across Europe will do little to help the current situation as Europe faces four Netherlands, Italy, France and Germany - potentially tricky general elections in 2017. Any shifts towards anti-EU parties and the future of the single currency will come under intense scrutiny. In the fixed income market, the yield differential between the UK and Europe has also increased in the last few months, aiding GBP. The 2-year UK gilt currently yields around 0.12 compared to -0.785 for the 2-year German equivalent and this gap is likely to grow as UK inflation expectations continue to increase. The Bank of England recently highlighted that consumer price inflation is likely to hit 2.8 in 2017, from an estimated 1.3 this year, as the effects of weaker sterling filter through. This is above the BoEs target of close to 2 and will not be tolerated for long by Governor Mark Carney. In contrast the latest ECB forecasts see inflation hitting 1.3 next year, still way below the central banks target of close to 2. The ECB recently trimmed down and extended its bond buying program until the end of next year at least, hinting that the central bank is still concerned over the lack of price pressures in the economy. When the UK triggers Brexit, by the end of next March by the latest, the endless rounds of rumours and what-if articles over the UKEU break-up will shift to a more factual basis. And it is here that any movement towards a soft-Brexit - the most likely stance - will give sterling an additional upward boost as both sides realise that flexibility needs to be shown between two of the largest global economies. Neither side will benefit from a prolonged hard-Brexit especially in Europe where growth is still anaemic, while the UK will suffer badly if the financial services industry is forced to move out of London due to a lack of access to European markets. Will the Euro give back more of its Brexit gains DailyFX Market Opinions Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. A DailyFX não aceita a responsabilidade por qualquer perda ou dano, incluindo, sem limitação, qualquer perda de lucro, que possa surgir direta ou indiretamente do uso ou dependência de tal informação. 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It is the responsibility of the reader to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local law or regulation to which they are subject. High Risk Investment Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. O alto grau de alavancagem pode funcionar contra você, bem como para você. Antes de decidir trocar divisas, você deve considerar cuidadosamente seus objetivos de investimento, nível de experiência e apetite de risco. Existe a possibilidade de sofrer uma perda em excesso do seu investimento inicial. Você deve estar ciente de todos os riscos associados à negociação cambial e procurar o conselho de um consultor financeiro independente se tiver dúvidas. O DailyFX fornece notícias e análises técnicas sobre as tendências que influenciam os mercados monetários globais. Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from IG .
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